So FTX fiasco took Bitcoin a big chunk of the way towards my target of $13000. So was that the bottom or is there more to come?
More to come.
So remember my red flags:
Billionaires from nowhere.
Heavy PR of the ‘messiah type.’
Deals that look like cash grabs.
Flashy behaviour in general.
Asshat behaviour in particular.
Opaque capital generation.
No good reason for success or its scale.
Wash trading, market manipulation circumstantial evidence
Centralisation
Philanthropy (sorry to say it but its often the hallmark of fraudsters trying to buy legitimacy)
Does that sound like anyone in the market right now? Someone that hasn’t gone bust yet?
Timing is of course everything in a bubble bust. It can be a matter of hours between going bust and livin to become tomorrow’s giant company. Back in the day it was said Fox only survived because of the arrival of the check for the hit movie ‘Home Alone’ and if it hadn’t shown up on that day it was curtains for Murdoch’s whole outfit. Murdoch’s old rival meanwhile met his end in the ocean having come adrift from the back of his yacht.
So FTX could be the end of this crash but from reports all the big centralised players are joined at the hip in a web of interconnected businesses. None of this is anything but shady and caused by the fact that the high profile outfoits took ridiculously huge risks from the start to get where they are. They are not the sort of people to get out before a bubble turns into the bust, they’ve hung tough before and it paid big.
It is Digital Currency Group that is the biggest cloud on the horizon, but the next domino could be anyone of a couple of dozen companies.
DCG owns Genesis, which is basically toast. DCG owes Genesis a huge pile of cash. DCG ownes Greyscale which probably owns 600,000 BTC. If that intermeshed pile of assets and liabilities comes unglued it would seem likely that a mountain of Bitcoin could get dumped into the market.
This is my ‘most troublesome’ meltdown scenario.
….but its not fate, but it is possible. Without that there is enough to take Bitcoin to $10,000 anyway.
The thing to recall is the whole point of crypto is ‘decentralisation’ but the robbers cant conquer the market for themselves without centralising it, so the human crab sidles about centralising Crypto in an attempt to steal big lumps for itself to scuttle off with.
Centralisation is what humans do and when you think progress is mainly getting humans out of the productive process, where they are either too costly, too slow, too stupid or too awkward, you can see the overwhelming tension between general progress and groups grabbing resources for themselves and there kin, by getting between progress and the rest of us. However, the process of centralisation is implosive, because the centralisers wreck the very thing hey want to purloin. Haters gonna hate, predators are gonna predate.
This is why CeFi is imploding, because greedy sociopathic predators have no limit and end up killing the golden goose. These bubble market heros aren’t smart they are just unbounded so they are genius on the way up but idiots on the way down.
…. And here we are.
… but we aint there yet.
…. But we will be
…and then it will be time to buy…