Just now Bitcoin went under $90000 a coin. That’s down from a high of $126,000, that’s 28% down, a fall considered in equities as a crash. However this is Bitcoin and a Bitcoin crash is over 50%. That suggests a bottom $60,000 or below is the full potential.
So what now?
Lets look at some charts.
This is a worst case as far as Im concerned, the coldest days in the coming Crypto winter.
$40,000 on Bitcoin will expose the market to some ugly times with a replay of the sort of events typified by FTX et alia in the last crash. Remember not your keys, not your Bitcoin.
Now lets look at it a different way.
This where we go if this is the bust of the Bitcoin cycle we have seen many times before.
For the Bull, what can go right?
It is quite possible that this fall is caused by a liquidity crisis unfolding right now, sparked by the end of QT and the Government shutdown. As such the Fed will step in and host money into the system and in the process save at least temporarily Bitcoin from an implosion to $40-45000.
Certainly the massive debt issuance for the AI build out is probably rubbing salt into the wounds, but any liquidity injection will hit Bitcoin and potentially push it up. I’d say that’s a 50/50.
In long short a geopolitical disaster would also help Bitcoin, but that is not on the cards.
So all in all, a year after I got out at $100,000, the fall I was expecting seems to have arrived.
If Bitcoin gets into the mid $80s then I would be quite certain that this is it for Bitcoin this cycle and Crypto winter has arrived.
It will probably look like this.
It is just 2018 glued on to the current chart at the right scale. However it doesn’t look too outlandish. That’s a bold projection and not fate, but nonetheless that is a map Ill be following to see if this is ‘it.’