Its almost a year ago when I bailed out of Bitcoin at $100,000. Here we are at $100,000. Yes I did forgo the $20,000+ upside I mentioned but I also missed out on a year of see-sawing around and had the use of those funds on catching the wild Trump market rise. However there is something else to bear in mind. Bitcoin was roughly $69,000 at the end of 2021 so how far is that away from the current level when you adjust for inflation is getting on for $80,000.
So this cycle has not done the hoped for classic Bitcoin x10 from the previous high. If this is the high it’s a +20% from the previous in real term. That is pedestrian in terms of many stocks, let alone Gold.
Now you might say if you bought at $20,000 near the low you are x4 up and that is true, even if you haven’t made any progress in about a year. However that’s getting in at the bottom and where we are now is not a bottom and is quite possibly a top.
So this is where we are right now: We are on that magic $100,000 level, at the bottom of the trend channel. You can see the previous short term trends and they are over. As such for the bull case to be in place, Bitcoin has to have a major rally, to $150,000 or at best it will be shuffling sideways.
If it doesn’t have a major rally, which I can not see, then boredom will set in and down it will go. Down? That would likely be between $40,000 and $60,000.
To me, Bitcoin is no longer a mature, Tradfi asset, lashed to the old system by Futures, Options, ETF’s, the dollar and Fed liquidity. Gone are the days of non-correlation and outlaw, anarco-economics, so perhaps the 4 year cycle is dead but if it is, so is the moonshots the Bitcoin-Maxis evangelize about.
That is what I think is highly likely and what it will mean is Blockchain will takeover from cryptocurrency as the next wave. That will see the never ending flow of crypto as Defi, gambling environment and the rise of new use cases that will power applications, not just wallets and speculation.
That will be amazing if it happens, so the money is catching that early rather than hodl-ling down and waiting for the $1m miracle Bitcoin we are constantly getting promised.