Bitcoin. Finally the crash.
Having called the Bitcoin top in 2024 and seen the Boom/Bubble pan out, I’ve been predicting the following crash for a very long time.
I bailed on BTC at $100,000, leaving the expected extra $20,000 to the next guy. My long term readers will remember all this.
I did expect the crash to come soon after but Bitcoin has stubbornly stayed aloft.
My overriding model for commodities, for that is what Bitcoin is considered, is ‘Gold is for War, Bitcoin is for Flight.’
‘Bitcoin is for flight’ has been in this mode and is exactly why Bitcoin has stayed afloat. With the 3 presidents, Trump, Putin and Xi, there have been plenty of reasons for the flight capital use case of Bitcoin to be rather popular. Yet ironically it would seem ‘flight’ might have a smaller audience or perhaps one fully prepared, in these last couple of weeks, so that the Bitcoin bubble phase of this cycle is suddenly and finally swinging into the bust.
This is how it looks to me.
This is what I see and, in the hours, since I drew this, it continues to follow that optical logic down.
If the previous cycles are anything to go on, $40,000 is the bottom, but that’s not fate.
Here is a chart from December 25, showing the bull/bear scenarios with the bear tack my chosen outcome.
And here is a chart from June last year, expounding on the similarities to now and the previous boom/bubble/bust cycle.
The idea is of repeating patterns in Bitcoin and how they kind of roughly repeat, and voila, here we are.
So what next?
The Crypto winter.
The only thing that might save it now is a huge geopolitical crisis. (It could happen but I’m not booked in for one.)
As such Bitcoin is highly likely to slide below $60,000 then down into the $40000s.
So what to do:
Hodlers are gonna hodl
Cynics should be long gone.
Traders should trade like the maniacs they are.
Investors should wonder why they are putting their money at such risk and re-access.
Meanwhile, recall, ‘not your keys not your bitcoin.’ If this crash unrolls as I’m expecting, there will be ‘institutional’ casualties so smart ‘Degens’ will be carefully diversifying their crypto custody arrangements in case of counterparty collapses.
But don’t forget there will be another 4 year cycle. When the dust settles there is likely to be great opportunities for those still with a stomach for Crypto.