It took a very long time for the denizens of crypto to realise the vertical price move of this cycle did stop at $120,000 roughly double the previous cycle which was double the previous cycle.
That cycle is 4 years wide and is caused by the 4 year process where reward per block is halved. A block is the unit a blockchain runs on, hence its name and Bitcoin is a digital currency that runs of a blockchain specifically built for it.
Half the supply, double the price.
The cut in the reward for creating a new block to add to the chain is called the halvening (halfening… halvning.. the spelling changes over time) so after the reward is cut the clock it running got the next boom, bubble bust cycle.
As such last cycles $60,000 goes to $120,000 this time around and the bust goes to $30,000, double the $15000, the last time around.
Bitcoin hit $120,000 and has fallen back to a low of $60,000, so if the cycle repeats again its dues for a fall to $30,000. Bitcoin has already fallen $60,000, so in a sense dropping another $30,000 to that predicted low, is just another normal period for the worlds spiciest commodity.
While the Bitcoin denizens are starting to be braced for the fall, it wasn’t supposed to go that way. Bitcoin was to head straight for $1m. The predictions even for public figures went way further. Bitcoin was heading for $5m, $10m, $21m. That a classic sell signal.
Anyone who has followed me on Forbes will note I bailed at $100,000. While the history of prices for Bitcoin seem to be very predictable, Im happy to leave early.
So what now?
This is my road map.
…but then I am and remain a bear.
Zooming in this is my speculation. Bull or Bear, the next substantial move is soon!
And as a bear I think this is the most straight forwards outcome.
Under $40,000 the believers should consider their DCA strategy. Im not a $0 BTC guy, I think Bitcoin has its place as an asset. However now Wall Street has its fangs sunk into it, with you dear readers the ‘exit liquidity,’ I’m not sure I’ll get back in for the ride at that level.
2028 is the next halvening, so there is plenty of time to wait and see.