I’m not a perma-bear. I’m not a doomster and yes I’ve been calling Bitcoin down for a long time now.
…and its been falling.
I called it up, in 2017, 2021,2025, its all here on Forbes if you want to check the calls. There I am in the record a Bitcoin bull on the way up and a bear on the way back down again in each case.
I’m not a Bitcoin-maxi, I’m a Bitcoin-vari. Buy it when its cheap, sell it when its expensive. Im not cherry picking my calls. I could say Bitcoin hsant risen since 2024, but I wont. I could say you would have outperformed Gold and the S&P if you bought in 2023 but I wont state that either, but that accurate hindsight has no value. I’m in the approximate foresight game and sorry I still think its going down some more.
Here is the chart, which is just another close variant of what I’ve said before. The map to the destintion just gets a little bit clearer to where I expect the bottom to be which is between $30-$40,000.
Its not fate, because things can intervene, but it is a high probability outcome.
There are a lot of headwinds out there for Bitcoin, not the least of them its use by the adversaries of the US. Some people get pretty angry at that when I point it out, but a half an hour of research will surface such skullduggery hat its breathtaking. It is enough to make me consider how the US might change its permissive attitudes to Bitcoin in due course. At the very least you would think the US will try and likely succeed in removing Bitcoins largest usecase, its utility to get around sanctions and undertake illicit transactions. Some people deny that’s a thing, but it clearly is. Bomb Iran and pooooff off goes 25% of the mining hashrae.
Bitcoin like a Cryptopunk NFT will never go to Zero, but the future can and may reverse its 4 year cycle of appreciation.
Yet first we need to get to the end of this cycle and see how the next begins.
Iran, North Korea, Asian Scam centre slavers will do the future of Bticoin no good, but whether they will permanently damage BTC is yet to be seen.
However if you do not watch out for that sting in the tail, it may well get you.