So Bitcoin has not really gone anywhere since I bailed at $100,000. Well not in line of expectations of $250,000 or $1m that the fanbase has been calling for. My caveman prediction for a very long time, ever since the last Crypto winter has been: previous high $60,000 x halvening = $60,000 x 2 = $120,000 new peak.
Its too simplistic, I know. We all need a clever story of heros and villians, but here we are and have been over an extended period.
To me something material has to happen to break this 4 year doubling cycle and its not plugging into the nervous system of Tradfi, infamous for its blood sucking rule-breaking predation on assets. Sorry Wall Street but your wrap-sheet is epic.
Now I’ve been in for a bit of stick over the last many months for not being bullish Crypto and have been the ‘bad guy’ on quite a few X spaces, saying this is the top, while the Crypto denizens have been singing the seductive moon song of Bitcoin infinity.
… yet here we still are between $100,000 and $120,000.
So what next.
To me the current Bitcoin chart is not weak. Its pretty strong, but my call that around $120,000 is the top before the next Crypto winter remains my position.
In my model, global tension is keeping Bitcoin afloat because ‘Bitcoin is for flight,” while ‘Gold is for War.’ Think of it in meme terms, Bitcoin is ‘Digital Exit’ Gold. While the possibility that many rich fellows might choose to exit their regimes in the future is a possibility, Bitcoin’s flight use case will be a strong tail wind for the price. Every moment of nerves for the many fragile regimes in this stressed out world will goose Bitcoin while their future looks perilous.
However rather than opine about where Crypto is now, lets look at what different groups in the market will act and how that might impact the future.
The Novice.
The retail novice is not really on the radar anymore. Todays Novice is actually the B2B player FOMO’ing in either with the Crypto reserve play or the final, ‘we better join the party’ (now its over) group that always metoos into a trend near the bend in the end. This group is noise.
The established crypto holder.
Not BTC Maxis, this group should be sat on nice profits or sat waiting for them. Most of his group are getting bored and fretful. This is the group the will start any avalanche of a crash. If they bail and push prices below $100,000 by much, it will hit the meetoo b2b late to the party crowd, who will fold like origami.
The Trader.
The Degen or simply the trader who loves the 24/7/365 action or knows no other market but crypto has a bullish lean. They like to be long and the short side, like in equities, is a minority sport. They are in while the volatility flows and mainly long. They are support at any level. They are likely neutral.
The Bitcoin Maxis.
They simply do not care about the direction. In their minds Bitcoin will not only be $1,000,000 a coin it can be $20,000,000. This is more possible than you might imagine. A beer might cost $10,000 in due course, though that’s not what they are dreaming about. If Bitcoin went to $100 they’d still believe.
These classic groups are in balance right now, but there is another group more prevalent this time around and growing.
The Drainers.
Think of all the newish players in Crypto now. The government, Wall Street, Tradfi converts and Jonny-come-latelies, corporation treasury reserve fomo’ers, never mind the hackers and their record breaking heists, dodgy projects and their worthless tokens and their pump fraud. They have always been part of the space but now the market is relying on these ‘institutions’ somehow to make Crypto go to the next level. The trouble is they don’t care about Crypto, they care about ‘fiat,’ and will drain fiat out of Crypto, which has the effect of deflating Crypto. The above old schoolers, non-drainers, are exit liquidity for the Drainers, who are highly skilled and remorseless. The drainers are growing and that’s not good.
Woe is me, oh such doom and gloom...but wait, there is good news.
Crypto is about blockchain is about use cases. However this original driver has been stunted by hostile regulation, so that only the risk hungry could play in a sandbox forced to be almost entirely limited to the joys of printing private sector money. Now the regulatory boot is off the neck of blockchain, at least in the US, the real value ad can begin which will in turn will drive the next cycle, with or without a crypto winter.
That’s where Ill be look for the next x10, not Bitcoin, because this boomer sees $250,000 in 2029 not this Christmas and investment returns are elsewhere.