This chart is all you need to see.
If you are a bitcoin maxi you are ready to rock the next leg up. I’m not so sure. It’s a no brainer chart, its either up like a rocket or down like a rock.
If you've followed me for any length of time, you already know my inclination. I’m bearish. Price isn’t magic, something always pushes it and for Bitcoin, these days, it is either Geopolitics or money flow. Long gone are the days of non-correlation to other asset groups.
So what’s pushing the market right now?
It’s not recovery. It’s not growth. It’s liquidity. The U.S. is quietly supporting its own market through a range of stealth interventions. A smoking gun being Treasury bond buybacks, an extremely uncommon operation and one that flushes cash straight into the system.
That’s right the US treasury just bought back billions of its bonds, just when the government is fighting to fund runaway deficits.
It's an effective move designed to keep the lid on interest rates, its fine, nothing to see here. The S&P has soared, the Nasdaq bounced higher than an Indian rubber man dropped from the top floor.
But here comes the summer showdown.
President Trump and his flying circus are about to meet the consequences of unleashing Krakens in their first 100 days. The consequences are in the pipe. The American supertanker doesn’t turn on a dime and the result of all this year’s 3D chess is going to resolve this summer and autumn.
The volatility we’re seeing is no accident and as various outcomes unroll, we are going to see the following pattern
First, up goes Bitcoin up the wall of worry. When BTC rallies hard, it means something’s wrong. Smart money and in many cases people are preparing to flee. It is preparation. Ducks getting rowed.
Worry becomes fear. It is game on. Gold jumps.
Finally, when the bang actually happens—like, say, a flare-up in the Gulf—connected assets like oil spike, or in the case of Mad Vlad, up goes Euro defense stocks.
And that’s exactly what just happened and likely happen again. Where exactly isn’t it getting spicy? You’d have to go to somewhere like Greenland to get some peace… oh wait!
So Bitcoin moves first. Then gold. Then the relevant effected asset.
That is because:
Bitcoin is for flight.
Gold is for war.
Connected assets (oil, defense stocks, shipping) are for the aftermath.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
I don’t write Bitcoin off anymore even if I think it is not going to the moon. Why? Because if you genuinely think the balloon might go up, you want a go-bag and an exit. Bitcoin is the financial equivalent of a private jet on standby. You don’t care about the volatility, you care that it’s portable, global, and outside the system. This gives it wings to unfold at any time and take flight in a big rally.
And when liquidity gets pumped into the market like it was in the recent near crash the frothy bail out cash will spike Bitcoin.
But all this chaos doesn’t make me keen to be long Bitcoin, because the moment we get an outbreak of normality, Bitcoin will dump. Stability is not Bitcoin’s friend. When panic subsides, Bitcoin slumps.
What is also bearish is that Bitcoin is the only game in town, beyond the stable coins.
Ethereum? Solana? Shrinking violet. NFTs? Its hardly partytime anywhere but Bitcoin.
Crypto is not in a bull run. It’s a one-asset play right now, and if normality resumes it’s a bust.
Because that’s Bitcoin’s cycle: Boom. Bubble. Bust, Repeat.
Does anyone disagree?
So the question isn't if the next bust is coming. The only question is when. Watch the chart, because, the markets always whispers before it shouts.