Which ever way Bitcoin goes, it s not going to be a small move. Every cycle the target for the Moon gets higher. The classic $1m a bitcoin trope comes from how much a Bitcoin would be worth if a Satoshi was worth 1c. Why not? Why not $1 or $100,000,000 a coin. After all who needs 1 cent these days, 1 cent used to be easily worth $1 originally and its only fiat with low inflation that keeps units meaningful. The 1 Yen used to be a gold coin and had Sens that made it up. Well not anymore.
There is no reason a Bitcoin couldn’t be worth $1,000,000 or $100,000,000 and the below image is proof.
However this is very unlikely to happen even though many doomsters have predicted it, are predicting it and will continue to do so. The likelihood of elevated inflation for a few years is there but 5% is not going to bring around South American/Turkish/post WW2 style fiat debasement.
It will be good if it doesn’t because Bitcoin investors want to see appreciation in real terms, not in meaningless nominal value which doesn’t reflect increased buying power.
So lets look at what the Bitcoin believers see happening. This is basically it. A quick move to $250,000.
It doesn’t look to outlandish. Its reminiscent of previous Bitcoin bubbles.
So lets look away from the dream. A basic charts would draw the following.
Top or Breakout?
In this mode a neutral observer would sat a 10% move up or down would foreshadow a major move in that direction.
A bear is going to see this:
So lets look at the pros and cons.
Pros:
There is a newfound institutional FOMO going on.
Bitcoin like acute geopolitical tension and there is plenty of it.
If NVDA can be worth $4tr why not Bitcoin.
Trump is printing.
That there chart is a break out.
Cons:
Retail doesn’t seems to be that fussed.
Bitcoin is now double the previous peak in the previous halvening.
Bitcoin might be roaring but other cryptos are kind of limp.
A huge slice of mining is coming out of Iran as show by the recent war.
That there chart is a top.
To me I can say that on Forbes over this Bitcoin cycle I have consistent called $120,000 as the potential top to this move, though after it didn’t go straight their I’ve been bearish considering the upside from the initial $100,000 range not sufficient to sit around risking a 50% drop. However now the balance is $250,000 or $60,000 and the call is.
Will institutional FOMO run and run or is it near its end. Bubble can run and run, that’s what makes them bubbles, but they can fold in a snap. I remain bearish but I would never short Bitcoin, ever, because it is simply too volatile. Long or short there is a lot safer upside elsewhere.