The Bitcoin chart is incredible. It appears on the way of yet another Bitcoin Parabola.
I have been writing forever about the cycle and have called in up and down twice before and this is the 3rd iteraction. Will this be another moon.
I believe that Bitcoin operates within a highly technical market that is not characterized by randomness. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, historical data should not influence future prices, as all available information is instantly reflected in the market, leaving no predictive power in the past. However, in an inefficient market like Bitcoin, where perfect mechanisms and structures are lacking, historical patterns can have a notable impact on future price movements. In my view, this applies to Bitcoin, making the analysis of its price chart a valuable option.
So let’s take a look.
It's quite difficult to imagine a chart that's more bullish than this one. You might be curious about the significant empty space at the chart's end. This is deliberate, as that blank section is the part that truly matters to you this minute. Why not leave it blank for your brains own neural pattern recognition abilities to fill in? Now, let's explore what the bullish perspective entails. So here is what the bulls want to see.
Myself I would not be surprised at all if this is what happens. I would normally say that at $100,000 a Bitcoin, the crypto market will be worth $5 Trillion about the value of half the Gold in the world and nearly 2 Apples or perhaps given time a mere 1 Apple and that is just to much, however it is not, this is what happens to assets the bubble and then crash. Bubble crash is what Bitcoin does and every cycle it comes back harder. Even so triilions of dollars of value makes Crypto a heavy asset class with Bitcoin coming in at a market cap of $2b. It is certainly believable but as that market cap rises so does it become less sustainable for such parabolas to keep on coming.
Bitcoin is still in its infancy and while industries get great valuations at their birth and youth those valuation tend to fall away given time. As such dreams of $1m a Bitcoin will not happen unless there is hyperinflation, and that cat seems well back in the bag. I do not believe we will see $250,000 a Bitcoin this cycle and my range is $80-$120,000 which frankly will be a massive move.
All the number crunching will not stop Bitcoin hitting $100,000 but the above road map is not fate but as we approach the ‘halvening’ this is the road map to watch because when markets go parabolic this is the form they take. Ultimately this is why people love Bitcoin, the dream of x10 and the exhilaration of the bubble is hard to beat of you are a speculator, but this should be about profit not adrenaline. Bubble markets go up like a rocket and down like a rock so the trick it to hold that thought and be ready to jump off the rise with a plan securely in mind.
There are several ways to play the parabola. Here are my favourites.
Jump off early. As soon as you start to sweat your profits bail and keep reminding yourself these parabolas come every 2-3 years and if you catch them all and get out early you will do extremely well.
Wait for the top and get out on the way down. High can be stupidly high, so wait for the jagged top before bailing.
Sell bits of your positions at levels until its all gone.
Sell the dull stuff off when you start to sweat your profits then take a chunk of the profit and go gambling with it on the hope the rally will continue by buying the spicey stuff associated with the rally in general. The bulk of your profits are safe and the spicey stuff may bring a nice result as well.
Ride it all the way up and all the way down and cry about it for years.
Option 5 is the one many pick and its there on the list to suggest its an option and it is one many take.
I normally play 1 and 4.
We are once again in that moment of Bitcoin vertical and once again I will play the get out early card but that moment is not yet close. I will start eating at $70,000, if of course it gets there.
Remember this run will not make any of us a genius, it is simply good luck we are in the right place at the right time to play what looks like a winning game.
There are many ways to lose this opportunity and come out poorer than we went in, so now is the time to get a plan, keep it simple and stick to it.
Good luck and Happy Xmas.