I wrote an article earlier in the week which I canned because it went out of date really fast, before I even had chance to upload it. It was saying Gold is for War, Bitcoin is for flight. The idea was if Ukraine was going to get thrown under the bus, it might save Bitcoin from crashing. It went on to have this chart in it:
Indicating one way or the other a move out of its recent range would define the next big move.
Well here we are:
Now it just might mean Ukraine is not going to be left to its fate, or it could just mean the crypto winter has begun as I’ve been predicting for a few months now.
What to do?
If you are a Bitcoin maxi you can look to buy even more around $60,000. Classically you just keep bying your DCA monthly allocation because Bitcoin is going to the moon, $1m, $20m, you know the ‘infinity and beyond’ tune. To a Bitcoin Maxi, boom/Crash is all just noise.
If you are a nervous holder lighten up, or even bail entirely. If you bought in the $20000s your doing fine. It’s a classic error to ride the boom all the way back down.
If you are a trader, trade this like a maniac. This is when you should show your mettle and make your money. If you cant make lots of money in these markets you should change your style.
Don’t short because shorting Crypto is for the birds!
This is what I will do. Wait a couple of years for the bottom and then Dollar Cost Average back in, if Wall Street hasn’t zombie-fied Crypto by then.
Now, we are living in special times and not necessarily in a good way. So Gold is for war and Bitcoin for flight, so expect Gold to chug on up over the next few years and if Bitcoin goes on a sharp rally, look for the rich folk, in the know, who are about to go on the run. It could of course still happen in Ukraine but in these matters the price will tell you a long time before the news, so its no good waiting for the TV or Twitter to tell you what already happened days or weeks ago.
If you want to doubt this breakdown, then fine, but its probably a good idea to have mental stops and even multiple ones for slices of your holdings, because the low when we get there is between $40,000 and $60,000.
This is of course all about the continuations of a trend of a cycle that has repeated many times and in these months of confusion there are plenty of unpredictable events that no one could anticipate that could heavily influence the picture but from my model that I’ve been writing about here for, in fact years, this is end of the boom and the beginning of the Crypto winter. It might flatter to deceive but there is no $250,000 a BTC this time around. Sorry.
Meanwhile don’t forget counterparty risk. Not your keys not your Bitcoin.