The Bitcoin assent into six figures is not going to plan.
To mye I feel the intersection of strict regulation on the one hand, nebulous and/or regulatory guidance on the other and the draining connections to Wall Street of the Crypto ecosystem may have crippled the Crypto revolution.
If Bitcoin was a financial insurgency, then it has been dealt with and now its become just another commodity or gift card voucher scheme. It has at the very least be defanged of the possibility of explosive and implosive forces we saw demonised by FTX but are responsible for $2tr dollar of above the line value currently circulating and likely as much again below the line in economic activity. That is an awful lot of value but its exponential growth has been regulated into a logistic curve with growth now a limp asymptotic. In a plain English summary, Crypto has been crippled.
A Bitcoin maxi will say, “we’ve been here before, just hold, the future dominance of Bitcoin is inevitable.”
However even if they are right and evidence suggest they aren’t, not many of us are planning to be the richest guy in the cemetery and the promise of a million dollar bitcoin sometime in the distant future does not hold much allure right now.
So where are we with Crypto.
Bitcoin is all you really need to look at and here is the chart.
Lower lows and lower highs is a classic, chart 101 and you do not have to get clever to see Bitcoin is slowly but surely drifting off. You have to be inherently bullish to expect a sudden breakout up from here. In addition you would be stretch to connect the initial rally to any new rally, which implies there will need to be a new impetus to make Bitcoin head for $100,000.
The range of this faintly bearish trend tell us there is a lot of uncertainty in the market and uncertainty is never a good thing.
If we have been in a Crypto summer, the market is definitely feeling autumnal and of course that leads quickly to winter.
The coming weeks will test this hypothesis and the odds are increasingly stacked against the last leg up to over $100,000 we have all been waiting for.