You can’t be right all the time. I decided to play this Crypto cycle with Ethereum not Bitcoin on the premise that Eth is spicier than Bitcoin and would run further faster. The idea was Bitcoin $100,000+ and Ethereum $10,000+
I suppose, like a true Brit, I mustn’t grumble because I did get my Ethereum much cheaper than even these depressed levels.
The last leg of the hoped for Bitcoin boom to $100,000 has not happened though the dream lives on or perhaps now instead, the prospect of a geopolitical nightmare of a scenario is in view. A terrible geo-political event that makes Bitcoin dash to a $100,000+ because a lot of rich/desperate people need to run for the hills with flight capital, seems possible because
It is already building every day in the news.
Gold is on the run foreshadowing that possibility.
This in my mind is now the only credible prospect for the final leg up and is not exactly a long shot. I hope it will not come to pass, but Gold and Bitcoin will provide a very strong advance warning. Prices often run well ahead of the news something we seem to see in the decision of the Federal Reserve for example. There every word and punctuation is examined by armies of analysts so its not surprising price moves pre-empt the news. For example you can be assured that plenty of individuals would load up on Bitcoin and Gold if their waring side looked like it was in big trouble and no one in a position to do so is going to leave it till the last minute.
Thankfully this is still a ‘what if’ rather than a certainty and meanwhile further down the food chain from Bitcoin. Ethereum is struggling. Here is the Bitcoin v Ethereum chart.
To me the calculus has simplified. Bitcoin remains the only true Crypto. It is not ‘run’ by anyone and almost everything else is and Ethereum has gone away from those Satoshi principles into the realm of technical and governance oligarchy. Human intervention especially in matters financial is not known to end well for the masses and we have certainly seen enough unhappy outcomes with centralised crypto thus far. I like a crypto that cant be fiddled with or downright fiddled and you now have to look really hard to find a Crypto where their isn’t a wizard of Oz pulling levers behind the curtain.
The rolling development of Ethereum puts it at risk with every modification. Tweaks can wreck the business model. The laws of ‘Unintended consequences,’ that of Murphy, Finagle, O’Toole’s and Waldo’s cannot be ignored or underestimated. Breaking the business model is easily done especially when you carry dogma along with you. Let me give you an example of a dangerous Ethereum Dogma. Monetary deflation is good and adds value. Sounds obvious doesn’t it…BUT!
….but how about Gresham’s Law?
‘Bad money drives out good.’
That means inflated money kills the usage of deflationary or stable money. That’s not good news for a deflationary Ethereum.
…no, no, no, crypto denizens cry, Gresham is wrong, good money, eg Bitcoin drives out bad eg: Dollars. That is a brave claim and when you see the success of stablecoins in term of crypto marketcap, you can see ‘bad money’ definitely has its charms even in the realm of Cryptos hard money posturing.
So Ethereum’s developers potentially flawed attempt at making Ethereum deflationary may just have been a blunder and the reason for its less than excellent performance recently. Meanwhile inflationary Solana has galloped up the marketcap charts.
In any event, right or wrong, the great boot of government is bearing down on Crypto and it is clear the fun is gone, and with it a lot of the benefits and advantages that Crypto had over fiat.
Want to make a new Crypto, or a new crypto thingamabob, better find a lot of money to get lawyers to tell you you cant do it without inviting the wrath of all sorts of global regulators and regulations. In the previous booms, you just needed to get coding and buy a plane ticket to the Caribbean.
So while the probability of the next leg up seems distant the bottom line is, if something wicked this way comes, up will go Crypto, if not, down it will go into the new cycles Crypto winter.
If gold wasn’t crying havoc, I’d say that the Crypto winter was here, but as Gold is frighteningly strong, I’m not ready to sell up my Eth just yet because while Gold used to be Boomer bitcoin, now Boomer gold is now Bitcoin.