Bitcoin is off to the races again… or so it looks like on the chart.
Normally you can tell yourself this kind of action only has a 1 in 5 change of being a real break out, but this looks sufficiently strong to me to make me sit up.
Here is why.
My regular readers will know I like to doodle on charts and if this is a breakout we will quickly break through 10,000 and go to 11-13000. I think the 11500 level is most probable, but this action is starting to look like the base of another bubble cycle.
Another vertical can go as high as $25000 but it has to be remembered there is no roadmap.
As I have written before its hard to time a bubble, make that, impossible to time a bubble. For a stat the ‘high’ might go in for only minutes before the price drops a lot. A bubble can lose 10% in a few minutes after the last forlorn panic buys go in. As such you have to be there to sell and hit that bid and you can't do it in size, so in reality that top is not real. The real top is where you can sell in size and it's hard to know where that is and it could be days before the final crescendo.
The current setup is looking super strong and the closer we get to $10,000 in this rally, the stronger the possibility we are on for a big run.
This fantasizing aside, another rally in BTC is good news for holders but probably not good news for the world. Iranian fast boats and trouble in Hong Kong are likely drivers for this current move.
The sort of potential trouble that drives Gold and Bitcoin, is not the sort of trouble we actually want to come true. The real impact and cost of a real emergency is incalculable. Let me give you an example. A Norwegian frigate crashed into a tanker a few years back. A frigate is a smallish warship. It sank. The cost to fix it. $1.5bn. When you multiply that out against a real conflict you can see how the costs become titanic. As such we should be careful what we wish for.
We can effect these matters of course and we can profit from smart investment and help the market do its thing, but it's sobering to see Bitcoin and Gold rally. Lets hope it’s the compelling economic cases that bring crypto to the forefront, not the foolish acts of governments.