If you are a Bitcoin Bull you are waiting for the crash to play itself out and for the next boom cycle to begin.
Without question Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency has been a lightning rod of interest for millions of people. When famous financial figures are interviewed they are always asked about what they think of Bitcoin. With Bitcoin having a similar value to any number of Big US listed companies that is like every finance and corporate press conference having several questions from the floor enquiring about Disney stock. This would be considered very weird but for Bitcoin it is considered normal.
Bitcoin has massive brand clout. For whatever reason the world is fascinated by it.
Nothing makes it cleared than the following Google trends graph.
Interestingly Google media and by implication, media interest, tightly corelates to the price of Bitcoin.
If people lose interest, then the price will fall and the naysayers will win out. Before we think the chart shows this bear in mind the green line is stock market and one of the biggest popstars on earth is the yellow line.
As an aside interest in the stock market goes up when stocks slump but the opposite is currently true for Cryptocurrency. This suggests to me Stocks are driven by fear and Crypto by greed, a tantalising idea in its own right. Behind this dichotomy is that thre old own stocks and the young own Crypto and the old are fearful and the young are fearless, full of hope a condition which can be summated into a kind of greediness.
So what is the current state of play telling us about the prospects of Bitcoin?
For me this says the worst maybe over, which is a drag as far as I’m concerned as I am still hoping for a buying opportunity below $5000 and perhaps a lot lower. Yet internet interest suggests that is not on the cards.
With Trumps ‘war on trade’ and Chinese devaluation flowing, it seems unlikely the Bitcoin as a dollar denominate flight capital asset will suddenly lose its allure. The there is the obligatory ‘trouble in the middle east’ to keep Bitcoin jumping, so it is plausible we have seen the lows of the crash.
I must admit to being sceptical but I have learnt over the years to watch the trend not listen to my gut, which often rumbles and is clearly connected to the other end of my anatomy far from my brain.
I am acquiring Crypto at these levels and will continue to do so, if Bitcoin collapses I’ll load up. Mining income is on its back with suggests core Crypto is a soft market, but Bitcoin is heading the other way which suggest that Bitcoin is strong but Crypto in general is still basing. If Bitcoin continues to piuck up the altcoin will suddenly spring into life.
So the way to play this market is to acquire gentle, watch Bitcoin and if it looks to be starting a new boom cycle, dive into it and some altcoins to add even more alpha.
It will take a catalyst to kick off the next cycle but in the past it has been ignited purely by the greed value of a fast move up. While it is ridiculous to try and time this kind of thing I’m still comfortable this can kick off in the early winter of this year. Google Trends will show it kicking of it that start to come about.