I have for a very long time stated the Bitcoin and thus the whole of Crypto is in a sideways trend and that it will either break down badly or go on another leg above $100,000.
Here is an example from the past, one of many I have used here to demonstrate, its from a long time back to underline the point.
Last week we broke down cleanly through that range.
If I had meaningful amounts of Bitcoin I would have lightened up. However, I’m in Ethereum, so I am hanging tough.
As far as Im concerned Bitcoin will now have to prove itself again or it will now be a long harsh grind down into another Crypto winter, this time between $25,000 and $30,000 a Bitcoin. It is not fate but the odds are now no longer 50/50. I am now no longer an optimistic bull but at sceptical neutral.
So here is the chart now.
The current chart simply says if you a bull, that Bitcoin is back in the game. To me it will have to get over $60,000 and get back into the box clearly for the old theory to be re-established.
A bear will expect the price to roll over now and go below the previous low and if it does even more doubt enters.
The narrative explaining this lapse is that the Germaj government has dump a big holding of Bitcoin it had seized from criminals and that caused the slump. In addition the Mt Gox payout is underway and this is saturating the market. This process will roll and roll as in effect a huge treasury of Bitcoin is back in the market having been in lock down for years. It will be hoovered up and we will be back in post-halving realities. However the 140,000 BTC payout is nearly a quarter of the supply squeeze of the latest halving, but then again how many of the early adopters will simply ‘HODL’ rather than dump. In any event those Bitcoin will be out there and this is a simple explaination as to why the wheels came off earlier.
I’m not a asset diversify when it comes to Crypto. Like Gold while I think it could be a great hold, Crypto is just a less correlated asset in the portfolio rather than a rocketship to investment heaven. In a way ynless you are a ‘end of the dollar’ doomster, Bitcoin has to go ‘ex-moon’ sometime and this is probably it.
However I prefer to trade what I see, not what I think and the current situation is:
Bitcoin gets back in its box, or perhaps a new diluted one, and awaits the next leg up.
Rolls over in the coming days and enters the new cycle starting with a crypto winter.
A true believer will simply buy more on the fall, and why not if the Bitcoin has made them a fortune from doing just that.
To me the following is the Achilles heel.
The above Google trends is ‘interesting.’ Mainstreet has lost its BTC mania so its up to Wall Street to make Bitcoin shine. That idea simply doesn’t work in my head.
Bottom line: Look out below.