I continue to be fortunate with my Bitcoin predictions but I’m a little surprised how far and fast Bitcoin has moved in the last few days. My position was “quick to $6000, then on to $10,000”
The $10,000 level is a lot closer than I expected it to be at this stage. Bitcoin has gone parabolic but the development of that kind of move is extremely hard to predict.
But lets predict it.
You would expect a top to go in on this move soon enough and this will create a period of sideways trading. This might be short or long. At this point a bull will expect a next move up and that would take Bitcoin over $10,000. A pull back would see it back down to $6000.
I’m not expecting that pull back I’m expecting a sideways consolidation and a mover through $10,000.
After that I have no clue because then it will be time to think long term in the same way as it was a time to sell in December 2017 and have a plan and it was right to acquire in 2018 as it fell with increasing aggressiveness at Crypto hit lower and lower levels.
Two things are clearly established.
Crypto winter is over.
Bitcoin is the new flight capital instrument. Bitcoin is the new Gold.
The Chinese are buying Bitcoin to hedge against Yuan devaluation. Indians are stashing cash into Bitcoin before it is horribly illegal to do so in India and no doubt Iranians are laying down their own BTC hoards again the eventuality of a vengeful USA.
This is a developing use case for Bitcoin and crypto and has had this use since day 1.
As this use case travels into the mainstream in can become a trillion-dollar use-case. Having flight capital is not the preserve of crooks, most people have a stash of money for emergencies. Flight capital is just another part of a diversified portfolio and there is a huge market of gold and silver hoarders prepping for the worst. It may never happen but the world is full of people with a couple of gold coins in a draw in case of the unimaginable. It’s a lots of flight capital if you were to pile it up in one place. Bitcoin is taking on that mantle.
However, while that kind of use-case makes good headlines, in the background a big event has happened that is a very bullish development.
It is the Coinbase Visa Debit card. Coinbase has 13 million users and I’m sure a huge number are now holding their new visa crypto debit card. It won’t take many users to start funding their Coinbase account to use the card, to move BTC’s price. A mainstream Crypto debit card cracks open the dreamscape of using Cryptocurrency to make every day purchases like buying coffee, a real thing. It is general acceptance that will ultimately slingshot Crypto to the lunar heights the true believers predict. The next phase of that moonshot has begun.
As a pundit it is uncomfortable to say it, but this is just the beginning.