So you know I’m a bear on Crypto at this point thinking we are near the top or perhaps have even seen it. At the extreme end of my positive expectations I am a minor bull with $120,000 remaining my target for the top with perhaps an overshoot approaching $150,000. These high target are not particularly likely in my mind and now is the time to risk for those that can afford a large pull back.
I am not a believer in the ‘Bitcoin to a mil’ this year group of acolytes.. Bitcoin could hit $1m, for several reasons, but not this cycle. The most obvious way Bitcoin could get to billions and zillions is if a beer in a bar costs $100,000 in the doomster hyper-inflation scenario, but I don’t expect the death of the dollar scenario to play out or any of the economic Armageddon what ifs so loved by internet pundits. Alternatively Bitcoin after another 3 halvening could get there in 12 years with ideal economic and geo-political circumstances but even that seems a stretch. That x10 would be worth waiting for and about a 25% yearly compounding, but its not the bitcoin Maxi dream of $1m by Christmas. $1m by Christmas? Nope.
$1m, one day sometime in the long future… maybe.
There is a fundamental problem I spotted when chatting with Davin Linn on his YouTube channel debating Bitcoin Maxi Samson Mow. Here is a link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pelsUgMI8s&t=1973s
A question Crypto denizens should ask is, Is Bitcoin likely to be the dominant crypto forever? Will the first Crypto, like Neo in the Matrix be ‘the One.’ It is possible but the opposite is also possible. The mere possibility of Bitcoin being superceded, serious undermines the $1m a coin idea under normal economic circumstances.
My reservations are added to by not being a fan of deflationary money. Hard money doesn’t have a great record. In the good old, bad old days, economies were ‘crucified on a cross of gold’ and one only needs to read up on the ‘free silver’ movement in the US late 1800s to see that all that glitters is not necessarily good currency. The history of money is great reading and anyone planning to be all in on Bitcoin at $100,000 should read up on it before sinking the kids college tuition in Bitcoin.
I do hold crypto, I do enjoy crypto I have been very bullish the last 3 crypto winters and bearish the following peaks, so I’m no ‘rat poison squared disbeliever’ boomer. I’m not even an anti ‘this time its different’ guy. I’m a buy low sell high fella and for this cycle BTC is no longer low.
So this is the road map for all seasons. For bull, for bear and super bear. It’s a map to help you follow what you see, in what comes next, in Bitcoin, not what you think will happen next. Bitcoin will follow one of these trajectories and as the do you will get a clearer picture of the likely outcome.
The current level is faintly bearish, so its best to see the current trend as a level of stability awaiting the next development. Bull or bear, will be revealed and then the trend with be strong and directional. The market doesn’t listen to us so we must listen to it.
For traders this is heaven, for BTCMaxis it should be of no interest, for medium term investors it is a hold or sell moment. To me 70/30 this is the top, so I’ve been easing out. At the previous level it was a hold and pray, at this level it’s a derisking moment.
Trump is ‘in’ on Monday, will it be a ‘sell on news’ moment?? Who knows but for sure Trump-ology is going to be big business in the markets going forwards and his impact will be outside in any instrument you play. Trump is bound to be less bad for Bitcoin than the Democrats and their ‘chokepoints’ and could lead to a flowering of blockchain applications that for years now have been suffocated by the regulators. This is where the next jumbo crypto returns will occur, so that is where I’ll be scouring the landscape for opportunities. Many Crypto investors don’t want to acknowledge yet another crypto winter will be upon us by a classic BTC pull back won’t matter because the next cycle will kick off soon enough.