I drew this chart about a year ago.
You can read article after article by me on Forbes here with very similar projections going back, essentially years. It is harder to predict the future than the past, but the reason I’m bring it up is because on what Im now predicting which is this cycle will go into reverse after the coming high is hit. I’m not a permanent Bull and while I’ve been right so far, if Im right about what is coming next, we are in the final run and then after a terminal high we are in for that famous Bitcoin crash action we should all be familiar with.
…but not just yet.
So Bitcoin has as near as it could, just hit $100,000 a coin. This has been the destination for the last leg of the bitcoin cycle for a long time. The terminus is possibly $120,000, but $100,000 is the level where the top is approaching. Markets love round numbers and $100,000 is very round, but the basis of the price goes back to the halvening when Bitcoin’s new supply halves and the value consequentially doubles. All this is not fate, but prices for assets is the outcome of peoples belief and intent and whatever the reason, here we are around $100,000 a Bitcoin because of the Crypto Bitcoin brand.
So what next?
Here is my road map.
Now the more aggressive true believers will see this:
It could happen. The idea will be that Bitcoin will continue to rise to the inauguration, but there are problems with that argument.
Most people think the target is the moon when a bubble hits its peak. It isn’t and it then tanks. We are close to those ecstatic sentiments.
The very top can be much higher than the tradeable level because the final move last minutes, even seconds and you are not there to catch it. So the high might be mighty but it was not actually tradeable.
If everyone thinks the high will be the inauguration it will be pre-empted so the high will be earlier
The Trump news cycle, which is buoying up Bitcoin is about to hit an exhaustion phase.
Because I say so.
Normally I get out (too) early, I have literally sold my bitcoin a few minutes ago, at the $100,000 area. I will run my laggard Ethereum position to see if it runs in the final phase of the cycle and a few weeks beyond the Bitcoin top as it did last time. However Solana is looking like the cool kid on the blockchain right now, so this Ethereum play might prove fruitless.
The altcoin insanity in the last cycle, is in this incarnation, ‘meme coins’ and I admit to being too old and dumb to play these too new and dumb ‘assets’ for their explosive up/downsides. The audience in markets has a high element of outright gamblers. Gambling is a use case, but when the trading game becomes a pure gambling skill game like ‘crab racing,’ its not for me. It is however emblematic of the last leg of the Bitcoin cycle.
So now we are approaching the final weeks of this cycle, remember, try not to ride your Hodl all the way back down. The only reason to hold through the next Crypto winter might be your capital gain tax situation, but otherwise only the most hardened Crypto, ‘never sell and die a bitcoin billionaire’ type should forget about trying to go to ‘fiat’ at the top.
After all these articles navigating the crypto winter and this new boom cycle, we are finally near the end game. Get your plan in and try to stick to it.