In a random market, ranges or repricing can be viewed is a bipolar way: half way there or all the way there. That feels like a useless 50/50, but it isnt because the next move is big and so can be coat-tailed when its established as being underway. Its tricky but when the next repricing has established its credentials there is usually a lot of further trend direction to make money from.
This is where Bitcoin is now, in a equilibrium sideways trend, either going over $100,000 or back down into Crypto winter.
Bitcoin has rallied hard in the last few days bring hope to holders we are on the way to $100,000+. The consensus target around the industry is $120,000+ but of course there are plenty of people prepared to name the sky as the limit.
This road map of mine from march still holds good
As does this from April
This is where we are now:
So while it looks and feels strong we are not trading out of the repricing box just yet.
It is going to be a tough call when it breaks out of this range as we saw when the price popped out of the box momentarily on the downside. Personally, I look for a clear clean break and perhaps a few days outside before putting on the trade. Sadly BTC can move a long way in that time. If we get a breakout and we are looking at $78000 or more I would be ready to become very bullish.
Here is a chart showing that kind of level where the probability a repricing is underway.
Charts are sketchy maps not fate.
The current price is a reason to be bullish but not a reason to pop a bottle of bolly just yet.
So as per last week, its still just time to hold and wait.
I still think we have another leg up and that ‘institutional’ momentum in areas like ETF will give Crypto one more leg up. We will know pretty soon, although a lot of people think it will take long than I do for this and the halving to bite. It is always good to remember getting the direction right is much easier than getting the timing right. As such patience is certainly a virtue even in wild markets.