Gold is the currency of conflict and as such it is on the ascent. I’ve been writing on being long Gold here for a long time and I hope my readers have enjoyed that. The ride is set to run on and on and while $5000 is a long way off, there is no reason that is not a destination over the medium term.
As I prefer to predict the future rather than predict the past, here is a chart from last November.
Here is one from March of last year.
It is of course plucky to make such predictions, but this trajectory continues to hold good. This chart is not fate, but it has been a road map for a fat return. It remains a projection of what can unfurl and a way of keeping tabs on the idea.
Yet, for those that want Moonshots it is the Bitcoin that holds fascination. Zillions of dollars a coin is the cry. Generational wealth is to be had. ‘if you just buy my Bitcoin.’ Now I’ve been bearish on Bitcoin for quite sometime now, sequentially discounting a rise to $120,000+ as time passes, to the point of clearing out most of my Crypto positions. However, I have not yet reached the ‘run away’ moment with Crypto.
So here is the thing.
Gold is for War, Crypto is for flight. Bitcoin is excellent flight capital because you can flee with all the money in the world, anywhere you like, with Bitcoin and no one would know. You cannot with cash or gold. Having helped a few Ukrainian refugees I can tell you Bitcoin is more comfortable for them than a money belt with five figures in US dollars stuffed under their hoodies.
So if Ukraine gets thrown under the bus, Bitcoin will run, because a number of rich folks will do also.
Of course many in Ukraine have had plenty of time to make arrangements for such an event, but on the margin if the US and Europe leave Ukraine to fate, there will be a spike in demand for Bitcoin and other liquid crypto and up will spike Crypto.
However be aware, the Bitcoin chart will tell you its happened before you read it in the news. So you can either make a call and back your guess or you can follow the market and set a trigger to coat tail such a move or for that matter a bear move down.
Here is the chart. My lines are just plonked on to give you the idea of what I’m writing about, they are not hard and fast barriers. You should draw your own levels.
Traders love volatility as they love Bitcoin because here is a huge intersection. One prediction is for sure in all market and that is volatility has reset upwards because of the new political era that is upon us. For the investor prepared to profit from this its Gold, for the trader longing to extract profit from the chaos the game is Crypto.
Gold appears a sure thing as far as direction goes but Crypto remains enticing for those looking to make a killing. So you pick your horse and you place your bet.