Although you don’t hear it, Bitcoin has crashed. A crash is classically a 25% fall in a sudden sharp move.
This is the only chart Im interested in now. It crashed at the beginning of March and then again at the beginning of April. While it recovered both times it leaves the chart looking like this:
Not many people consider this a bullish chart but the key feature of these kinds of moves are that they are ‘equilibrium levels’ around which the instrument oscillates. Being Bitcoin that is a wide band indeed. If it breaks up or down from this range, then the move is going to be bigger still. In this case down to at very least $35000 or upwards to $100,000+.
For the believers this is yet another short pause on the road to $1m a Bitcoin, but to others it’s a clear top.
First here is some disclosure from me. I love Crypto. I own Bitcoin and Ethereum, small positions but material to some people. I have a ton of Crypto tokens of all sorts and will be in and may go out of any Crypto you can find listed. My positioning is currently I’m on the side-lines because I think BTC has/is at its peak and we and in for a bearish period before the next Bull run around the next halvening.
Note it has fallen hard since I wrote this, this morning but that’s no guide Im right……
Now this is the chart that anyone less than 100% of a Hodl’er.
This is the previous boom/bubble. Obviously Bitcoin and Ethereum came unstuck and this is how it played out. Eth keeps going long after Wiley Coyote has gone off the cliff.
Unpacking this a little, this is what concerns us in that chart.
Why, because this is where we are today:
If you have aeven a single technical analysis bone in your body, this is going to ring alarm bells, especially as for the initial rise of Bitcoin, the 2017 pattern repeated itself.
I’ve put the two together and I must add Ive offset them a little because they are so close they overwrite each other. You can take the two separate charts and reove thegrids and yellow yourself in paint and do the match yourself. Its photographically the same.
Here is a version with a tighter match. I could make it tighter if I bother to do more than simply drop it on top.
Its also amazing to see Bitcoin mirroring the past almost exactly. Im pretty amazed.
You might throw in this chart too:
This 2-step even vertical has always been a very useful indicator of top for me, but you should always take charting voodoo with a copious pinch of salt.
To me there is a sense that crypto has gone from a coherent bull market to an uncoherent market where its impossible to see through the froth to the underline trend.
Defi where I played after I left Ethereum and Bitcoin to others has gone from a 10x game to a volatile percentage game and NFT have seen its week in the sun and experienced its first boom, bubble and bust cycle meanwhile.
My position is Cryptocurrencies, DeFi, NFT and all the other categories present or to be born are in for a generationalbull is unchanged but if Bitcoin has seen its top then all that will suffer the bear part of the Crypto cycle it has suffered more than once before.
If Bitcoin breaks out again then the sky is the limit once more and if it does I suspect I’ll go play once again in DeFi where the upside would once again be multiple not percentages.
While positioned to do so I would be extremely surprised to see it.
With acknowledgement to Mark Twain, I’m expecting the future to do a bit more than rhyme.