The old joke about predicting the market was its going to go up, down and if it doesn’t do that its going sideways. I added to the gag, ‘but it will not trade from right to left.’ Like all good jokes there is also an element of wisedom to the idea.
So here is a chart.
This is why a bear like me cant get excited even after the recent hot rally. The upside seems limited, the downside large and the range purely for the short term traders.
The believers see $250,000.
…and why not. However, while150% return sounds luscious its not the kind of jackpot Bitcoin carved its reputation with. It’s a big ask to the upside and a small one to get to the counterbalancing downside. The Hodlers have been right so far and when I look at my trading its no better an outcome than the buy and holders of Bitcoin, at least thus far.
For the short life trader the minnows are doing their rocket/rug dance and this is where the pumping fun is to be had if you don’t mind losing your shirt in an instant. There is always a small chance of glory, be it a tiny one. At the previous high the AI agent tokens were the crazy game where big profits could be had, if you were fleet and lucky and fearless, but that party pooped and right now those casino games are back for a day or too feeding off the Bitcoin rally that is actually the only real game in town. Hw long this double top or moon lasts is the only call.
Gold is for war and Bitcoin is for flight, so there are plenty of unknown unknown’s to push Bitcoin but it will need them to stay aloft.
Many believe government’s embrace of Bitcoin is a good thing for the price of Crypto but I beg to differ. Bitcoin remains the natural enemy of government and that surely is unlikely to end well for Crypto in its currency incarnation. Stable coins will definitely flourish, but competing monetary systems are unlikely to be so lucky. However that’s all ‘thought leder’ futurism, right now iswhat counts for anyone not a ‘die rich hodler.’
Meanwhile the big driver is liquidity intervention into the US markets because of the recent equity crash and connected Treasury bond scare. Big money injected to elevate stock prices has now sloshed cash into Bitcoin. Up going Bitcoin because it is the frothy end of town for carry traders. These liquidity operations will dictate the near future. As the tide of cash flows so will Bitcoin rally or stall.
Bitcoin is now lashed to the classic markets and its rogue days are over.