The long held major criticism of Bitcoin was volatility. It has/had too much so the opinion went. This was bad! Actually volatility is good if you are talking about a trading asset or an asset looking to be taken seriously by the audience for financial assets. Volatility is simply the range of randomness inherent in the trading of an asset. The traders that drive any market love it. No one cares to follow an assets that wallows for ages going no where. The boring assets never get the media coverage that most require to get the attention they need to drive their prices and their liquidity. It is Bitcoins volatility that has produced the virtuous circle of making this new type of asset on of the biggest financial brands in the world.
…and now its gone!
Take a look at these charts:
Here is an intraday.
Here is a yearly chart:
When a market stops like this it is generally a sign a big move is on the cards. For a trader glued to a chart this is great news as all they need to do is to put in red lines for when to jump on that move when it comes, then sit back and wait.
No one likes to wait of course and most hate to not have a theory about the direction.
In my experience these hiatuses are not bullish. There is a buyer loading up at a level which provides firm support but when they have filled, down will go the price unless something new happens to kick the price up. As such more often than not the price will fall and from here that drop looks towards $20,000.
It is certainly the case that consensus says a Bitcoin ETF will be great and that the SEC ‘must’ clear some of the bevy of ETF applications to create one. The idea is Bitcoin ETF will lock up a pile of Bitcoin in there operations and open Bitcoin to a broader market of traders boosting the price.
That should be in the price already.
What I see is a slackening of interest in Crypto and while 5 years ago any press conference would start will a question about Bitcoin whatever the event, no Bitcoin is old hat. Even the Crypto media is drifting away towards AI. This leaves the Crypto ‘institutions’ on their own to play with themselves, which would lead to a sudden drop in the sort of action a retail audience would inject.
The end of summer might change that but the recent charge simply says, ‘big move ahead’ and if you are a trader that’s an invite to a new Bitcoin trading party coming up soon.