Bitcoin crashes after new year. What now.
According to Zerohedge the collapse was triggered by a fellow called Markus Theilin who wrote a research note at Matrixport which said there was a 20% downside so it’s a good time to hedge.
Here is a video with myself and him talking Bitcoin and Ethereum from a couple of days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ0I7aOJbIk&t=1s
Believe it or not but I too have been blames for Bitcoin crashes in the past for articles I have written here for Forbes, and its true, at least its true I’ve been blamed, but it seems unlikely that an article even here and by me, can crash a trillion-dollar market just by writing what amounts to ‘BOO!!!!’ It seems that people always want to blame someone for a market dive, with personification important to people and media. It just won’t do, not knowing who did what to who.
However, a shout can set off an avalanche but really its not the yodellers fault, it’s the fault of weeks of heavy snowfalls. The avalanche is inevitable and caused by the configuration not an individual.
I hope Markus doesn’t think bad of me to say he didn’t cause this dump, but I could be wrong, but these things happen not because of anyone but because of the way the market works.
However such market moves can be created as ‘stop run’ where ‘bucket shops’ operations rob their customers by artificially manipulating a crash. I suppose can be put at the door of an individual but you will never hear there name and this is very different to a research piece as it is direct, calculated and forced. By ‘bucket shop’ I mean a financial platform that may or may not back your position with the actual asset you think you own and who make when you lose, not earn when you pay them to trade. Never trade through ‘bucket shops’ they always win and you always lose. It’s a corrolory of the bitcoin maxim ‘not your keys not your bitcoin,’ in effect, ‘not your stop loss, not your Bitcoin,’ because the manipulation of your stop loss levels means your money will be pumped from your account into theirs at some point.
It is good to recall that while stop losses are pushed as being important for traders, they are lethal if left with parties that will take your money if you are effected by one. Bucket shops spiking out stops is a crime as old as the hills and it is still alive and well in Crypto. If you can’t hold a stop loss in your head, or sit glued to a screen, don’t hold the position.
So here is the chart of the crash.
But looking at the big picture, all of a sudden the dive doesn’t seem so bad.
You can relax a little, but not to much because Bitcoin will always be an explosive asset.
If the ETF’s are bounced back by the SEC, and none are approved, it will give Bitcoin a hard kick down from the disappointment, but the real event is the ‘halvening’ in April (April 17th as I write.)
I’m not fan of ETFs for Bitcoin. It could be a plus, it could be a negative. The folks behind the ETFs are not by nature your friends, and the Gold ETFs aren’t exactly the friend of Gold investors. Most ETF’s aren’t what ETF’s were envision to be anyway. ETF are a perfect example of how the finance industry takes a benign idea and weaponises it into an often-toxic instrument. A reverse 4x leveraged Bitcoin ETF that doesn’t track much, anyone??? There would be one if it was allowed. Chicanery lurks.
However I’m a big fan of the ‘halvening.’ It’s a thing that cant be faked or bent, it’s a solid halvening of supply and that seems to have been a strong influence of doubling the price.
Again the way to go is dollar cost averaging and ‘buy the dip’ if you believe. If you don’t believe in Bitcoin, don’t get suckered in by FOMO, stay off the bus.
Its going to be a wild ride and you need certainty to stay in for the ride and not get killed.
Then at some point you have to jilt Bitcoin and high tail it to cash.
Crypto is a hard game.