The UK could be heading for the EU exit. In 2016 there will be a referendum where the British will have a chance to leave the European Europe. That would be a first for the EU that has been used to nothing but expansion.
When the UK joined it was called the common market and it was an idea stitched togwther by France and Germany from a steel industry confederation. The idea grew and grew from the desire to bring a halt to a thousand years of European war where the Anglo-French (UK and west France), French (Rest of France) and the Holy Roman Empire (Germany and sundry allies) were at constant war. This culminated in the First World War and the Second World War when the four horseman of the apocalypse with the help of technology made it clear to even Europeans that war must stop.
So a steel industry combine became a ‘common market’ became the European Union, became the United Staters of Europe. Hold on a minute the last part hasn’t happened yet and the British don’t like the sound of it. However most of the rest of Europe does.
The Conservative party, the right wing of British politics has been split for a generation by those in the party who want out, unremittingly pitting themselves against those that want in. It has been the key fault line for the Tories and has brought up a fringe party that threatened to keep the party from power.
For the British Prime minister, David Cameron, the referendum is a solution to solve this split once and for all. If the referendum is ‘stay’ then the anti-Euro brigade is marginalized, if the vote is ‘to go’ then the anti-group has nothing to moan about anymore and the people will have spoken, shutting up the rest.
The basic calculus is ‘no way is the UK leaving.’ Westminster, government and opposition love Europe and they believe that the British public will never be so stupid as to leave the EU. If there was a decent chance of a no vote, the referendum would have never been put forwards.
However anti-European attitudes are growing fast and the core reason is the civil war in Syria and the flood of refugees.
This has horrified the British. While there is a lot of empathy for the victims, the news of refugees trying to storm the channel tunnel to get into the UK and the million immigrants that German is absorbing, with untold yet to come has created an impression that to be part of the UK is to invite a tidal wave of foreigners into Britain.
The traumatic terrorist attacks in France have amplified this fear and the Brexit ‘leave the EU’ vote is in the ascendancy.
The UK has had a lot of immigration and over the years attitudes have hardened from where it was once considered a taboo fringe issue till today when it is front and center in the lead up to the ‘Brexit’ vote.
David Cameron has sought an accommodation from Europe on immigration, sovereignty and banking rules and he may well get that. The voters however might consider it fiddling on the margin and vote for an EU exit.
In the end it will come down to the for and against campaign and it will be a close run thing. Either outcome will be major because an exit will be a leap into the dark for the UK, while a ‘stay in’ vote will set the scene for the coming of the United States of Europe which everyone understands is the destination of the great European experiment in peace.