Today the UK Supreme Court overruled the UK government’s suspension of parliament. The current Pro-Brexit governThis is half way between a shock turn up or an obvious outcome depending on your model of what’s going on.
My opinion since the Brexit referendum passed was Brexit would be killed because while the populance were in favour of British independence, the Elite were squarely Europhiles and ‘Europeans.’
In my model the Establishment would not let Brexit happen, at all costs.
The fact that the route to this has been so torturous is that the elected representative of the establishment know they will be ejected at the next election if they show their hands, without a scapegoat or much plausible deniability.
They system has in effect run out of road to kick the can down and now there are just days to run before Brexit must be killed or must occur.
The Forex markets say Brexit is dead. The bookies say Brexit is dead, because they all point to no Brexit at the end of this October and this means that Article 50 will be extended and then revoked.
Boris Johnson, currently and perhaps shortly ex-Prime Minister, must perform an escape act worthy of Houdini to get his Brexit through. The EU will do nothing to make it impossible to do a deal, so only a Hard Brexit is possible if one is possible at all. Johnson will have to have a better coup-de-gras up his sleeve than he has demonstrated his ability to so far concoct and if he has there really will be some incredible headlines coming up in the next few weeks.
If the British Prime minister does not pull of this Brexit escapology, he will most certainly be finished and likewise his party may be mortally wounded. The Brexit electorate will desert them. That fact might be Boris Johnson’s only hope to remain the Conservative’s leader but only then if he purged the party root and branch of its pro-European candidates, a near impossible task. So no Brexit means the end of the Tories until further notice.
The Socialist Labour party who’s supporters are sufficiently pro-Brexit to also hole it below the waterline may well suffer a similar fate. They refused to become a ‘remain party’ their recent conference.
The Liberals, a rump party long dead has firmly nailed its standard as ‘the Remain’ party while Nigel Farage’s Brexit party is well underway and if Brexit is officially buried by revoking article 50 or even extended another election is likely to see these two parties turn the establishment and the established order upside down.
Brexit party = Hard Brexit, Liberal government = Dead Brexit
You will great odds on teither of these outcomes.
There is however one more thing. What happens if the EU refused to extend article 50? This is unlikely to happen because the more the UK suffers the less likely any other European country will travel down the same route.
Without doubt there is a lot more political carnival to come but the thesis that the British establishment will never allow the UK to leave the EU at all costs, remains firmly in place.