I seem to be one of a very few writing about the fact that Brexit might not happen at all.
That is weird.
There are plenty of column inches about calls for failed attempts to whip up a second referendum, but nothing for the ‘advisory’ nature of the actual referendum that squeaked through with a 52% vote.
Lets be crystal clear, The EU Referendum Act 2015 makes provision for holding an ADVISORY referendum.
The definition of advisory is any is need is ‘guidance’ or ‘recommendation.’ There is no element of that word which means ‘order’ it has no ‘must’ in its nature.
It is a Non-legally binding referendum. That is not opinion. There is nothing in the 2015 Referendum act for it to be legally binding because of the basis of ‘parliamentary sovereignty.’
So for the UK parliament to be short cut by an executive implementation of Article 50 would be highly irregular and most likely unlawful.
To cap that the EU will only acknowledge a article 50 call if it is done so within the constitution of the country invoking it. As such ‘parliamentary sovereignty’ also gets in the way of a short cut to article 50.
But the real secret of what happens next has been buried deep, but if Reuters is to be relied apon, it is now out of the bag.
But first I have to say, while I keep writing about this matter, I do not care about the result. Leave or stay, don’t care beyond making money out of the markets because of the uncertainty and not losing money because of it.
It might sound cold hearted and when it comes down to investing you have to be, but its not the real reason. The real reason is, in the short term its politics, the medium term its economic and in the long term technology/science. That is to say, that this whole episode will make no great long term impact.
If you look at the capital cities of Europe over the centuries they look roughly the same. The lives of ordinary people were very similar on a day to day basis. Politicians were up to their usual tricks, the same tricks since recorded history. The difference in life expectancy and prosperity, apart from occasional politic fueled blips, was science and technology. Whether the French were decapitating their king, or Henry the eighth was chewing through his six wives, or the British and French were slaughtering their aristocracies through civil war and pitch battle the underlying technology of Europe delivered a consistent life to the people across that continent to an extent, the roads, the towns, the objects and the books change in lock step with the progress of knowledge.
Politicians make the headlines but scientist make our future.
So Brexit, smexit…
Meanwhile I care about obvious market game changers this crazy brexit process will bring.
So Reuters reported the Letwin, who has been appointed by the current and soon to be gone M, David Cameron, to be in charge of the Brexit has said the need for Parliament to vote before article 50 is invoked is down to the courts to decide. And this will be decided in a case between the government and Mishcon del Reya.
This is the pivot of Brexit.
No one is stressing ‘advisory,’ ‘non binding’ on parliaments sovereignty and you can see these a huge issues. There are three elephants in the room and we know what it means when the obvious remains unsaid. It means trouble.
So as soon as these words: advisory, non-binding and parliamentart sovereignty, start to enter the news, you can summise that something ‘unexpected’ is coming. It might not happen, but if it does that will be advanced notice of another market-quake.
If this conjecture is right, the government will try and put as much clear water between what happens next and these actions. If Reuter is right and the courts will settle the matter there could be oceans and even parliaments between the vote and the decision to invoke or not invoke article 50. It could go all the way to the Supreme European court.
So the other bombshell is a new UK PM triggering article 50 as soon as they get into power this autumn. Watch out for the foot dragging, because that will be a strong pointer down to what ‘m going to christen the nope-brexit.