Its now years since the Brexit vote and when it kicked off I predicted it would be killed.
Oh how they have tried and they will keep on going to kill it.
The foreign exchange market say Brexit it back on again. A no-exit Brexit is clear to see in 2019 and now that attempt has fallen away the pound has rolled over and we are heading back into Brexit mode.
The bookmaker odds still have no Brexit happening this year with Article 50 still in place. A hard Brexit is still considered an outsider event.
Boris Johnson is still the favorite to be next Prime Minister, 1/3 odds on. The main question seems to be whether he can be trusted to keep his promise for a hard Brexit or whether instead he is a typical political jellyfish prepared to dissemble as much as it takes to ascend the slippery pole of politics. I think this is an unfair judgement and I’m shocked as to how many people believe this. The possibility of a Boris Johnson Brexit flip-flop seems to be the core variable to what happens next and the odds seem in favor of the Jellyfish scenario.
The institution drive in the UK is to Kill Brexit and the push will be to revoke article 50, for a ‘rethink.’
So we have the following path.
Find political excuse to kill Brexit and leave old status quo broadly in place.
Kick the can down the road and hope No Exit Brexit will condense from the mists in time to avoid election catastrophe.
Hard Brexit or the semi Brexit currently on offer now.
Right now no one knows the outcome but there are way points that will shift the odds.
If Boris Johnson is elected, as seems highly likely, it won’t take many weeks to find of if he is a flip-flopping Jellyfish. Any hint of ‘iffs and butts’ will confirm the doubters view that he is to be a no-Exit Brexit PM. I doubt this reading but it will be clear pretty fast one way or the other.
If the new PM is an unknown or not a hard line Brexiter, then article 50 revocation is on the way.
If the new Tory leader gets elected, if a clear Brexiter and underlines there will be no extension of Article 50s leave date, then Brexit is highly likely occur.
Early indicators of this will be sterling and if the pound goes sub-1.1 to the Euro the Brexit is on the cards. If the pound strengthens then jellyfish are on the way.