The UK government is very worried about the prospects of a vote to leave the EU. This exit from the EU is a self inflicted worry because no one but some members of the ruling Conservative party or the fringe UKIP party (UK Independace Party) want or requested such vote.
Not only the elected government fears the possibility of a break from Europe, so does business and the very institutions of government too. UK’s elites bar a rag tag of contrarians are pro Europe.
The man in the street is not so sure. They don’t have second homes in France and Spain. They aren’t at home in the exclusive ski’ing resorts of France. Not for them a Tuscan villa’s or Wagner in Bayreuth. Their access to the pleasures of Europe and the European gravy-train is nonexistent.
So the British establishment is selling ‘fear.’ The belief is that if the average British citizen (peasant) can be convinced they are a couple of hundred pounds worse off in an independent UK then they will vote with their wallets to stay semi-detached from the great European federation rather than adrift from it.
No one is thinking what happens if the populace votes to leave.
Firstly ‘project fear’ is likely to work. It worked on the scots, it is highly likely to work on the sleepy British. However it is the very somnolent nature of the British that might deliver a ‘leave’ vote. The energy of the leave camp might pull off an upset as the bored British ‘stay’ camp, do in fact stay at home on polling day and don’t get out to vote, while the more motivated ‘leave’ voters take to the field and win.
What most are overlooking, is that if the UK votes to leave, it WON’T leave.
The referendum is not binding.
That right after all the effort and campaigning, if the ‘leave’ vote wins, the vote will be ignored.
That sounds unbelievable, but the very same thing just happened in Holland where the Dutch voted to keep the doors shut on free entrance for Ukrainians to the EU. The EU said ‘sorry we cant break our promise to the Ukraine, tough luck Holland.’ The referendum was ‘advisory’ or more accurately pointless if it disagreed with the EU’s position.
The Brexit referendum is also ‘non-binding.’
Only the British parliament can ratify it.
It won’t.
Here is why.
The opposition won’t vote for it. They will say, we are against the whole idea and so are our supporters.
That leaves the conservative government to pass the ‘leave’ legislation and it has only a 16 majority.
Oooops, if just a few Tory pro-EU MP’s break ranks and vote against leaving the EU, Bingo, no Brexit.
The government majority is only 18, if wouldn’t take too many conservative proEU representatives to just abstain to kill the whole thing.
So with the whole force of the British establishment behind staying, with the whole of the EU experiment at stake, those ‘rebels’ will be found and the UK will not ’leave.’
This will create a crisis of huge proportions.
The Dutch might shrug about the Ukraine referendum default but if the outcome of a ‘leave’ Brexit vote is voided by the UK elites that will be a different matter.
The consequences of that would be almost unfathomable.