People love to call the imminent meltdown of the EU.
Anything that goes wrong is seen as a catalyst for a disintegration of the European project to federate the biggest first world trading block on Earth.
It is not surprising because for the other powers, superpower or wanna-be superpowers, a unified coherent Europe would be a vast and perhaps dominant competitor.
For one thing Europe would be bigger and richer than even ‘exceptionalist’ America, something even the global policeman would find uncomfortable.
So if the Euro-crisis wasn’t going to destroy the EU, it has to be something else. Perhaps it will be the appauling immigrant, migrant, refugee crisis or the apparent wide spread economic difficulties of many EU states.
Now the Brexit, the UK’s referendum to stay or leave the EU rather than sit and moan all the time about membership, will loom large as a potential killer blow to the European dream and set to cause its constantly predicted meltdown and demise.
It will not.
A Brexit will not wreck the EU, in fact it may well hasten its federation.
The UK has always been in the awkward squad of the EU. The UK consistently wants less EU, while many, likely most countries on the continent want more.
The spreading EU hegemony is not a dark conspiracy, most people in Europe see themselves as Europeans, something few British people do.
Having set the runaway train of referendum chugging down the tracks, the British Prime minister and his governments has been gently rebuffed in its attempt to water down the influence of the centralization of European governance away from its states.
The concessions given to the UK will mean little to the voters.
Margaret Thatcher, the personification of modern British conservative power, took the EU to task and won big in the 1980s, leaving the current wins for her distant successor looking pale by comparison.
When one of the four concessions granted is the protection of Britain’s reviled bankers you can surmise that the referendum is not going to be won or lost on those points.
The Brexit campaign has got off to a flying start, with many government heavyweights joining the leave camp.
The conservative government’s upcoming superstar, Boris Johnson, London Mayor and MP has thrown his hat into the ring for the leave camp. This is considered a big win for those dreaming of an exit from under the EU’s shadow and they hope that ‘Boris’ as he is affectionately known by swathes of British voters, will heavily tilt the odds towards a Brexit. If the Brexit is won Boris will be odds on to replace David Cameron as Conservative leader and depending on timing Prime Minister of a new ‘liberated’ UK.
For Boris its a game of thrones style gambit.
The referendum is set to be a juggernault.
Rght now the best indication of how the voting will go is from the British bookmakers. The spread is 66 IN and 33 OUT or 2/1 against the Brexit, which in a two horse race says the dream of a Brexit is nothing more than that, a dream.
Yet these are days of black swan election wins where polls say one thing and the voting outcome ends up wildly different.
Even a faint whiff of a possible exit will unleash a political and economic whirlwind.
If the leave camp gets traction with the voters, the pound and the British stock market will be lead a merry dance providing traders an opportunity to win big by calling the outcome.