You know I’m a Bitcoin Bear so you know which of the following trajectories I think is coming up. I have no material position so I’m not ‘talking my book,’ unless you feel having negligible skin in the game is a position in its own right.
Bitcoin is for flight, but it would seem that the Venezuelans no longer need to consider a fast exit and the Iranian troubles that might shatter the regime seem to have come to a bloody ending for now. So who is on the horizon that might need to consider going on the lam? To me the answer is, no one obvious, which in turn means Bitcoin price weakness in my model for the key driver of Crypto prices.
So these are the two main scenarios.
On balance there is more downside than upside even if you are neutral. Of course, you have to believe in voodoo charts but as someone who has been rewarded heavily for being a disciple, I take it as foundational.
However the upside is certainly helped by the entropy coming out of the US, but the next leg of that seems to be Europe focused which would not elevate Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the focus of financial market meme chasing seems to have shifted from Bitcoin to Gold and simply put, the FOMO mindset that has driven crypto for so long has landed in the precious metals arena. This is certainly a drain for Bitcoin and will continue for an extended period as Gold is going to be exciting for a long period ahead.
The moon crew and their bags are ogling instant ‘generational wealth’ through a precious metal lens now, which is great for precious metal stackers but not so great for the diamond hand hodlers of bitcoin.
Meanwhile the main risk in the markets is that the current US geopolitical chaos will hole the stock markets below the waterline. The equity haven for this is precious metal proxies but the mainstream wont be able to hide so easily in Crypto if the Mag 7 get damaged by a rupture in the western consensus.
However all this guessing will be pre-empted by the price action on Bitcoin and Gold because those close to the reality of whats up next, will move the price long before they move the headlines. I see metals up, crypto down.
So we draw our own lines in the sand and wait.