When it comes to Bitcoin versus Gold, Gold is the senior market. Bitcoin is not digital Gold it has different use cases. However there is a similarity in the two assets. While my Bitcoin socks get a great reaction when I was walking around LEAP 2025 in Riyadh, it does not have the same impact as wearing a gold Vacheron Constantine Watch, or seeing a buildings coated in gold leaf or eating a stake at Salt Bae’s resturant in Dubai coated in Gold. Gold is fused into our DNA by eons of natural selection that even today you can see at work in the bars and night clubs of Monaco.
Bitcoin is better flight capital for the fleeing rich and we can imagine plenty of villains bailing out of their benighted situations with Crypto rather than unwieldy and insufficient stacks of cash and gold. However Crypto is not a great store of wealth. Sorry believers, Bitcoin is no secure. There is no such thing as a cold wallet, or at least not one at absolute zero. Fort Knox is more secure than Satoshi’s wallet. It is a big drag that not a day goes by that ‘secure’ crypto proves as at risk as a gold Rolex at 1am in a red-light district. It is one of a number of current Crypto weaknesses which mean that Bitcoin can never replace Gold or for that matter replace ‘fiat.’
But lets forget all the Bitcoin Maxi versus old geezer Gold v Bitcoin debate and lets look at the current situation.
Bitcoin is in an equilibrium. That equilibrium has a lot of noise in it as you would expect, but it is clear its going nowhere yet, but when it eventually moves, its going up or down a lot.
That is not as asinine as you might think, because a trader will watch for the breakout and jump on board for the ride. What should happen before a break out, unless there is an unexpected development, is the range of the equilibrium compresses as the market makes up its mind. When it has compressed to a low level of noise, you get the break out. This can be seen in the past rallies and has let me call those breaks. There will likely be a rerun, subject to a big news, out of the blue event suddenly cracking the trend.
To me the current setup is not bullish, its basically finely balanced. However, the bubble in Crypto AI tokens that boomed and died is not a good omen for more Crypto joy because in the past that kind of froth signalled the end of the run. However its not the time to give up yet, the way to go is watch and wait.
Gold is different entirely.
The chart is a classic boom chart set up, replete with ballistic curve.
So right now Gold is going ballistic while Bitcoin is range bound and noisy.
Gold is for war while Bitcoin is for flight. The former may of course come before the other and they both can boom. That is just guessing however, don’t trade what you think, trade what you see. So when trading what you see on this chart, Gold is the cool kid on the block and Crypto is tired.
To me there is no existential conflict between Gold and Crypto. They are both assets denominated in dollars and not the converse. However only Gold looks like a strong one way bet.
Remember what you see in a chart is what has already happened and where Gold trades today is probably advanced warning of the kick in the pants the US delivered to Europe this week of the 10th February 2025. If this US stance is a strategy and after all it should be, then gold will run and run.
Gold is for war.