For some reason many might think odd, Scotland was given the opportunity to have a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom and gaining independence.
This bit of political Russian roulette seems to be going horrible wrong for the United Kingdom or wonderfully right if you are a Scot who wants to be a citizen of an independent Scotland.
Scotland would be the 20th largest country in the EU out of an expanded 29. It will be approximately as large as Slovakia, Finland and Denmark. It’s a viable sized country. What is more when you take the North Sea and throw in fracking and associated new oil drilling technologies, Scotland could end up like Norway sat on a huge $150,000 a head pension fund filled by its oil wealth.
Politicians in Westminster, the British democratic equivalent of Washington have like their American cousins lost most and probably all of their credibility, so the sight of politicians from Westminster arguing against independence has flipped the expected vote from a heavily and unassailable “NO” for independence to a stunning majority “Yes” vote.
Time appears to be running out for the United Kingdom.
The solution the Unionists are reaching for is to send more politicians in to bat for a “No” vote.
More politicians begging for a “NO” seems like a recipe for a lot more “YES” votes and therefore a final swing to ensure Scottish independence.
The politicians are, as you would expect, trying to scare Scotland into staying part of the UK.
It is a “fear sale.”
They are basically saying, “if you leave the UK you will suffer badly, so stay.”
This is completely the wrong strategy.
Markets are driven by fear and greed. As market watchers, traders and investors, we know this as a given.
This is not however just confined to the stock market, it is human psychology.
As such there are two type of “sell.” A “fear sell” and a “greed sell.”
Now it turns out that a “fear sell” is the only way to go when selling B2B (Business to business.) No one ever got fired buying IBM, is the perfect B2B fear sell. Consumers on the other hand love a “greed sell.”
The Ponzi schemers of this world will attest, there is nothing a consumer likes more the “maur, maur, maur.” Greed is what sells to consumers and it sells to voters too. If you want to sell beans, its buy two and get one free, not buy one and don’t suffer badly from hunger.
So while the British politicians are selling fear and raising attention to the independence issue to a fever pitch, all Scots are seeing is the potential of the greed sell of “hope and change,” getting shot of sleazy Westminster and an ocean of potential oil wealth all to themselves.
All of a sudden Scotland has all the glitz and magnetic attraction of a hyped up Toronto listed resource play. “Just say no,” never works in the consumers mind.
Yet for me Scottish independence is actually not the main issue. The great opportunity in the vote is “English Independence.”
Independence for Scotland is really Independence for England.
Its not the Scots getting shot of the English, it’s the English getting shot of the Scots.
Independence for England would be great.
The English have been for too long been blinded by the “Great” Britain myth. The English have been so cowed by all the implications of being the centre of a “United Kingdom” that it was illegal for many years to even fly the St George Cross flag of England unless it was with permission of the local government.
An independent England would finally need to focus on the fact it is less than 1% of the world population and that it needs to get its game on if it is to reverse its chronic decline.
It is ironic that Scotland wants to call it quits having pretty much run the United Kingdom via its Kings and politicians since Scottish James VI became King of England in 1603. However, if Scotland does indeed vote yes to independence it is a win for England too.
Scotland will then of course be absorbed into a federated Europe and lose its independence in a generation or two, but who knows, they might end up running the EU instead.
Meanwhile if the pound does truly collapse in panic, it is well worth a big long position after the event.