Make no mistake hardly anyone in the British government, elected or otherwise, wants a Brexit. It’s the electorate that wanted a Brexit and it was and is highly unlikely they will get one. Back when the vote went through, I predicted Brexit wouldn’t happen for the simple reason that only a small minority of those in power were keen and as such it would never get off the ground. Circumstances are shaping up to prove me right even if it has been by a much more twisted route than I suggested.
What is highly likely to happen is that since the recent Brexit UK/EU deal has been voted down in the UK parliament, the UK will ask for a 2-year delay for further Brexit negotiation and probably get it. This will be enough time to let Brexit wither away. In the US you would call this kicking the can down the road and in the UK politicians call it ‘kicking it into the long grass,’ ie hidden and lost forever.
Few politicians want to be seen as killing Brexit because that might get them thrown out by the voters at the next election, so what was need was a cover to kill Brexit and not take the blame. This was found last night. Few of the assassins of Brexit in this vote will get unelected because of it and many will even argue they are pro-Brexit and the deal wasn’t pro-Brexit enough for them to support it.
This betrayal will be remembered as a collective action and politicians will be able to save their hides by saying ‘it wasn’t me I didn’t do it.’
However perhaps this attempt to kill Brexit will fail. What might the scenarios be.
The UK could simple fall out of the EU on the 28th of March. This hard Brexit, would certainly be a Brexit to be reckoned with. Both sides might be highly motivated to sort out the mess. If you really believed the ‘peoples vote’ needs to be honoured, this is the most likely roadmap. Most of the pro-Brexit population would go for moving fast and smashing things up, but of course they probably would end up regretting the outcome. Things would likely no work out as bad and it is laid out, but it is a super high risk way ahead.
There is the second referendum idea. That might be thought as unnecessary now by the Remain camp. If Brexit can be kicked into the long grass, who needs to risk permission from the citizens to kill Brexit. The gutlessness of general British politics is proven so why take the high road when you can slither down the low road and frustrate the electorate by stealth. A second referendum might bring about a re-affirmation for Brexit and then what? There coulds only be another round of betrayal or an immediate, disastrous, super hard Brexit.
Parliament could send a new delegation to Brussels to try and get a new deal, but time is running out and Brussels seems to have made it clear it has given the best deal already. With the prospect of Brexit being postponed indefinitely what have they to gain from giving more?
Holding all these factors in mind the odds are on, Brexit is dead.
If it is the FTSE should rally a lot, so that will be a good sign to watch for a dead Brexit, as it will flag the understood reality amongst the government elites that Brexit and its downside are past.
There is however a nightmare scenario.
The EU might suddenly give the UK terms to cancel Article 50.
Perhaps they might require the UK to drop the pound and enter Schengen etc to be like all the other countries in the EU. How else will the UK stop being an ongoing ‘awkward member’ of the EU. Why should the UK be in the EU on better terms than France, Holland etc Obviously, the UK will have shown it can’t do without the EU and that the EU can clearly do without the UK. What better way to show other EU countries that messing around with their relationship within the EU has awful consequences? Does anyone doubt the EU might take this approach?
It is not yet time to discount this possibility and what would happen next to hard to contemplate.
While the US has fantasies about the disintegration of the EU, one thing that Brexit shows is that the EU has huge cohesive strengths. If Brexit fails, it will demonstrate that once you join the EU, that it is over for that country’s independent sovereignty. A killed Brexit will show the will of a country to leave by whatever mandate cannot be delivered and this strength to be independent is the essence of Sovereignty. It will mark the beginning of the next logical step of EU integration that leads to the consolidation of the United States of Europe.
If you studied the 1000 year war of European history, you would think the United States of Europe, with its unified 500m population of rich well educated people would be a good thing and for the UK, it has less than two months away from being irrevocably inside that superstate.
So if they Kill Brexit the destiny of the UK will be once more a province of a European power.