Its much harder to predict the future than the past, but you’ve seen me get luck here over the years, so I plan to ontinue to make wild predictions and get more than my fair share right.
I was calling the SpaceX IPO on Youtube like this.
Pop, Slump.
…and here we are.
What next.
Well take a look at Coinbase and Robinhood and tell me that isnt going to happen for SpaceX.
Now that will make some people sad. They bought the IPO saw it go way up. Either got greedy and held or forgot to sell the pop and now find themselves underwater.
A wissened trader would tell short term IPO traders to take the loss. I however would say first, did you want to invest in SpaceX? If the answer is yes, then you can wear it for a few years and you’ll probably be the smartest fellow on your street.
My position was and is, buy the IPO once everyone hates it and has forgotten the hype. Let the lockups expire.
You can see the blue print in the Coinbase and Robinhood charts.
Now lets move along, nothing to see here!
While I’ll be DCA’ing into SpaceX if it follows these blueprints, OpenAI and Anthropics IPOs are back to Plan A. Buy the pop and drop the stock somewhere between day 1 and day 3 depending on my digestive fortitude.
It sems unlikely US and UK investors won’t get offered it as it will be so spicily valued the only way to get the institutions in to the IPO is to have the retail hoards howling for stock at the get go.
So the full blueprint is: Get the OpenAI and or Anthropic IPO, Sell the pop. Wait for about a year and the insiders unlocks to pass and then look to re-enter.
In my mind they will be trillion-dollar companies but not global economy eating monsters. SpaceX has the whole solar system to go for and Musk the Merciless to drive it. The AI Apex meanwhile have no such almost infinite moat and opportunity to protect them. They do however have a lock on the most vital and expensive software machines ever created and a way to stay at the peak of the AI iceberg of value.
So while I will definitely DCA an outsized stake in SpaceX when the hoopla is dead, OpenAI and Anthropic might just be a singular position.
So Im looping back. As I wrote here a few weeks ago. We are in a bubble. That can run for several years and the position is not to stay on the sidelines. The trick is to ride the wave with a plan to get off and count your winnings.
Here is a red flag signal, to set you investment phasers to stun. When amazingly large and spicy IPOs hit the market and you are not invited in as a retail investor, know the market bubble jig is about to be up. This is your signal to evaluate your strategy because someone is ringing that bell that someone said they never ring at the top of the market. Wild IPOs for the ‘special people’ is sign of a bubble about to pop. It is bound to happen.
This is an example of that market top bell being rung. Many bells are rung at the top of the market, but no one is listening.
Keep your ears open.