Everywhere there a crazy little company trying to emulate (Micro) Strategies Bitcoin treasury model. Why not it appears to be free money. Apparently, there are people in the world prepared to give you their dollars as long as you promise to spend it on stashing Bitcoin, whats more they will give you a huge premium to do so. What sort of people would actually do that??? When it all comes unglued, will it make sense? How is it not a good trade to by Bitcoin and short these companies?
If this Bitcoin treasury thing is not the final signal on the Bitcoin rally coming to this cycles terminal then I don’t know what is. Buying shares because they own Bitcoin is perhaps an alternative to holding an ETF if you can’t cope with self-custody or an exchange, but paying a huge premium makes no sense at all. Well it can make sense but not in a good way.
So last night Bitcoin dumped under $100,000, to below $99,000 and then rallied back up again.
It fits my model of geopolitical events shaking markets where BTC is for flight, then Gold is for conflict, then after the smoke is clearing real asset gets a move on. However if you take the recent middle east flash points I say to can see them in the prices of all the relevant commodities, BTC, Gold and OIL before the events kick off, so it is more likely better to watch prices than the news to see what is about to unfold. Rather than try to trade these commodities best stake out the stocks that retail will bail into after the event. For me that is defence stocks and I must admit to buying Equinor, the Norwegian state oil company whose oil is not Middle East centric.
Meanwhile BTC tanked because, so they say, equities are falling on the Iran bombing. This doesn’t speak to Bitcoin as a haven or as a non-correlated asset, but while those well worn tropes are pretty much expired now.
So what next?
I see this:
You get the drift, it’s a pretty simple idea.
Meanwhile parroted memes are all you can here and I can’t describe how unsettling it is to hear so many people talk such nonsense about Crypto in general. Wild narrative is a huge trend in all news these days and it is clear a huge number of people are consumers and believers in what they are fed and that’s pretty awful. Investing with the herd is dicey game.
The crazy ‘buy now or miss the boat’ FOMO memes are as wild as ever. Apparently, Bitcoin will go to million a coin now according to the promoters. When does the madness end?
Not as soon as it should I feel.
So rather than have an opinion and take a position against the howling mob, I will just say, above is the map but if Bitcoin maks new highd a few thousand dollars over the previous high then rather than look to jump on Bitcoin, look for what will boil over in the next geopolitical emergency that BTC is telling us is on its way.
Bitcoin is for flight, Gold is for War, Commodities are for the aftermath.
For me, its precious metals and defence shares, not crypto and sneaking up on me is oil: safe oil.