In 2010 I predicted the Dow would hit 14000 by the end of 2012.
It did.
Here is the article
At the beginning of 2013 when the Dow was at 14000 I wrote it would be at 16000 by the end of 2014.
I hope I can be forgiven for being too conservative.
In late December of 2013 I wrote, the Dow was 20,000 or bust, but I think it is fair to say I simply said ’Holy cow’ the Dow is breaking up out of its super-long term trend. It could go mad.
17000 is definitely news.
So let me just say if you had believed me and traded my opinion you would have made a fortune.
I just want to get that out of the way, because I take it some of my readers aren’t just reading for entertainment. If you want to thank me buy my books or send me a crate of good claret.
So what now?
Firstly while its hard to predict indices, NG: its meant to be impossible, it is not so hard sometimes, at least for me. Right now it’s a really tough task.
Why?
Because this is literally uncharted territory.
So here we are. This is a break out as predicted. Its pause for serious though. Crazy things happen when long term trends break.
Look at this: This is a log chart. When an index starts to make sense on a log scale you need to buckle up.
So I think that’s what I want to say now. Buckle up.
I’ve said 20,000 or bust. That’s a two part prediction.
The thing to grasp is this is a new era. You need to adjust. Volatility is going to come steaming back and when it does a lot of money will be made or lost.
If you want to play you have to seize that fact that all those rules you made money with since 2008 will quickly become outdated.
There is a new game in town and no one has got a peak at the rules yet.
If you play by the old set you are going to have a hard time.
Remember, boom, bubble bust. In that order.
The summer correction has been muted, the May bust hit Dubai not Wall Street a boom is forming in the west.
This is going to get wild.