The UK stock market and the UK pound value all points to a Dead Brexit.
As I write on 21 10 2019 the Brexit saga grinds on, but every time a new development occurs it confirms the thesis of my initial article just after the Brexit referendum went the way of the ‘leavers,’ that there would be no Brexit because the UK establishment would move heaven and earth not to leave the EU.
If actions speak louder than words of the players, this is clearly the right model. However, the twisted, damaging path to arrive at this outcome is quite shocking.
Firstly I must add I will make a very fat return if Brexit gets killed, while I have backed my judgement of the likely outcome and a ‘dead Brexit’ will certainly be in my best interest, I am pro-Brexit out of a bloody-minded revulsion of the whole disastrous self-destructive process.
My heart wants a Brexit as a reaction to the nauseating way the British establishment is spinelessly slithering to kill the result of the referendum. Granted all the other EU countries that got a referendum result their governments didn’t like, simply binned them immediately, but the repulsive way the British establishment is going about doing the same over a long strung out torture, shines a bright light on the degeneracy of the British elite.
Boris, who wasn’t going to, sent the letter for the extension and is now ‘dead in a ditch’ as far as his ability to deliver Brexit. The EU as I write is reserving its position but expressing through channels the probability of an extension if parliament doesn’t sign up to the deal. Without the ‘gun to the head’ of an immediate hard Brexit, no Brexit will ever pass the British parliament.
A referendum will likely follow with two choices:
No Brexit
Brexit in name only. BRINO.
If anyone can come up with a plausible reason to retract ‘article 50’ for later consideration, that will happen instead or as well.
The British Government reckons it has enough votes to carry the deal in parliament, but it reckoned it was leaving ‘do or die’ on the 31 Octobers too, wasn’t going to have to send the letter and it had a way of forcing the issue. It hasn’t, it wont and it did and is hasn’t that either. Every Brexit delivering assurance has been shown to be false.
So unless Boris Johnson has a magic ‘get out of jail’ ‘get out of Euro card,’ Brexit is dead.
Brexit IS dead. This is the obvious direction of travel and this week should underline that or produce a full scale parting of the Red Sea miracle.
There will be no election. If there was one, in short order, both main parties would be annihilated, so guess what, that isn’t going to happen.
Brexit will be killed and parliament will find a way to plausibly shift the blame to the otherside. Then on masse the MPs will try and pretend nothing happened until a general election in 2022. Meanwhile they will do everything possible to discredit/gag the Brexit party and distract the electorate from Brexit altogether. They may succeed.
So what should an investors do:
If there is a ‘Dead Brexit,’ the FTSE 100 will go through the roof. Highly likely
If there is a pseudo-brexit FTSE will take longer to rally but go up a lot. A fair possibility
There is no ‘hard brexit’ but if there was the market will fall 10%+. This is not going to happen
It the financial markets have a handle on what is going to happen next, you can see the future in the British pounds performance. It doesn’t seem to think we are in for a hard Brexit and with the ‘Brexit Deal’ said to be in the balance it doesn’t look like the market agrees with that as the strength of the pound suggest its nearly all over. The Pound says Brexit is dying.
The direction is positive and with little volatility. This is an adamant sign suggesting developments are heading to BRINO or ‘Dead Brexit.’ So while the media rattles on about will they wont they? The UK pounds says it looks over for Boris Johnson and Brexit.