The end of the war will be the beginning of something big.
So as I write the world await a peace memo agreed by Iran and the US. Oil has crashed, Bitcoin has rocketed, miners have rallied.
Its no mystery why oil has crashed and if you believe Bitcoin is for flight that fits the bill to, at least initially. Miners are up and many would say its not general relief it’s the fact that materials like the Sulphuric acid they need for their processing is now likely to be back on tap.
Of course relief it more than enough to drive markets.
We will see what happens next and I think its fair to say that few people would say it is definitely going to happen.
However, we should be looking past this situation now as it is clear, that all parties are keen to move on.
So the key call for investors is what next?
It will take a miracle for this to be the end of the matter and as such they will be a drive for energy security all around the world that will put a floor on oil prices. At the very least countries will need to thing in terms of strategic reserves that will last more than a week or two. That not the only infrastructure that’s going to have to be laid in. There alone there will be investment opportunities because where once the story was oil was going to be an orphaned asset that no one wants, it is now clear it is and will be vital for a very long time indeed.
Oil companies are cheap. Lets leave that point there.
Meanwhile stock market have just enjoyed a shot in the arm from what looks like a big cash bazooka which will not fizzle out in days but will carry a rally through for perhaps months.
Being long seems like a good bet, not that is never is, at least for a couple of generations.
Let park long the market.
….as if that’s not enough to be going on with.
My thesis is somewhat wilder. I’ve said this before and it has panned out, though punctuated by rupture and rescue coming out of the Whitehouse. The Nasdaq is going to go into a 2000 style bubble. I’m calling 10000 within 2 to 3 years.
Now many will see ‘bubble’ as a threat because the dotcom bust hurt so many people. I see it as an opportunity as it as a bubble that made fortunes for those who knoew when to walk away and avoid the crash.
That is coming. It may have already started because 100 p/es and trillion dollar market caps aren’t ‘normal.’ Yet there is more to come, probably much more, so now is the time to plan the ride up and pack the parachute for the exit.
There is no rush, there is no hurry, but in the future when you see everything going vertical, remember, ‘up like a rocket, down like a rock.’
We wont want to remember that when it happens and I believe it will, and that process is likely to get underway once the mess in the gulf has at least the resemblance of normality.