The parallels between Apple and Microsoft are clear.
Like it or not both were founded and run by Genius. Both companies became the giants of their eras and titans of the stock market. Both had their moment of glory. Both lost their key person, replaced by a great businessman but someone not capable of the huge achievements of the previous incumbent.
Microsoft’s moment was a decade ago. It stood as an unassailable monopolist astride IT technology. Since those glory days, nothing terrible has happened to Microsoft except that it has slowly but surely slipped back into the pack of normality. Microsoft is just another massive US corporation, there is nothing relatively outstanding about in comparison with other companies of equivalent size or industry clout. It may be massive but it is humdrum.
Microsoft’s stock high was just south of $60 at the turn of 1999 and after the fall back to earth of the dotcom bust, it has churned between $20-$30 a shares with only a few moments above $30.
Apple investors need to look at the Microsoft chart carefully because this is a highly likely future for their stock. The Apple magic is draining away fast and like Microsoft, if the news flow it to be believed, Apple is beginning to sound more and more normal.
If Apple is to follow along the Microsoft path there is worst to come for the share price. There is plenty of more volatility to come in any event and if history repeats itself this is highly likely to be of a bearish vein.
It will take a Job’s style miracle to return Apple to the peaks but a long grinding future seems a much more likely outcome instead.
The $400 support line will be an important pivot point going forwards and it will be a surprise it this level is not revisited soon.
If Apple breaks the recent previous low then a nasty fall is highly likely.
Even the firmest Apple fan now knows Apple needs a new miracle product if it is to escape the gravity of business normality. If that’s not coming soon, the Microsoft’s chart post dotcom will be a pretty solid route map for the road ahead.