I would never have guessed I’d be a commodities crazy! I’ve been so anti-commodities over the years it feel strange to see nothing but major moves in commodities like Gold, Copper, Palladium and Silver. However you have to trade what you see rather than what you think.
What you see isn’t necessarily what others see and over the years I’ve studied the work of my late friend Benoit Mandelbrot and it has been very lucrative for me, illuminating as it does another aspect of time series. Patterns repeat and for a reason. The reason being that the same processes are at work which creates what is known as fractals, self-similar patterns.
So I find myself ranting on about metals and drawing charts like this: This chart is not destiny, but if the future starts to look like this prediction, imagine it as a map, worth paying attention too.
Unless sanity breaks out, precious metals are going to be in a long term bull market and at some point FOMO will strike and when it does it will be Silver that will be the fast horse.
Retail investors are a juggernaut but it takes a lot to get their engagement. Having said that I can see from my writings that Silver has already grabbed the attention of a vanguard of investors who make up a growing audience for the ‘maidens metal.’ The magic number is of course $100 an ounce and its interesting to not that would mean there was merely $5tr of Silver in the World, a little moore than there is Crypto or a couple of Mag 7s.
It is also interesting to note there is 25,000 tones of Silver mined each year about 8 times the amount of Gold clawed from the earth. Its been a long time since silver was 8 to 1 with Gold, but there is no reason it has to be 90 to one in price rather than between 40-50.
It seems obvious to me the dollar is going to be ‘soft’ in the coming years and a fall in the value of the dollar is a rise in the value of commodities soon enough whatever the fundamentals and use cases.
In any event so long as Gold is on the bull trend, Silver is going up and until Gold is looking tired then Silver will attract a bigger and bigger retail audience and Silver will catch more tail winds.