I wrote here back in June 2024. That we would get two years of Nasdaq boom and bubble and it would get to 25000.
Then it would probably crash.
Well here we are at 29000. Well I don’t hear anyone thanking me for helping them make a ton of money. Oh well….. as every broker knows, all successful recommendations are down to the brilliance of the client and all tips that lose money are the brokers fault.
But wait the two years are up.
Ah…..!!!
So what next? More boom or imminent doom. Well doom sells, so what can I tell you to keep your attention?
Firstly, let me say, direction is easy, timing is extremely difficult.
Anyone who regularly reads my work here will note, I’ve pretty good record of calling the trends early and I hope those who jumped on, for instance, Intel at $20 bucks are smiling.
However, my style is terse, I don’t bother drilling into all the fluffy minutiae. If it isn’t a simple idea I’m not interested. I think its fair to say my brutalist approach can be checked here back decades and it would make anyone who slavishly followed by thinking, a fat return.
So, let me take a crack at calling, what is next for the Nasdaq.
Let me be blunt, I say this is 1998 in the dotcom boom.
So lets sketch out a route map and give us some framing.
2028 is the finale
The level is 40000-60000
Beware President Trump crashing the market March time, like the last two, but expect intervention to put the market back on trend if that happens.
Keep in mind the obviously curated straight line trend. The procession of mooning stocks.
Remember if you start laughing in pleasure day after day at your portfolios performance, you are on thin ice.
Variables.
There will be a money supply ‘print-a-thon’ from the Fed, caused by the AI build out and the MAGA onshoring intersection. (Don’t expect them to admit it.) AI build out will drain liquidity out of the markets and the Fed and Treasury will have to pump new money in to keep the financing wheels on. That will keep inflation high (5%+)
The US economy will run hot, and why not if you want to win an election.
It will feel great and it will feel bubbly. However while they say no one rings a bell at the top. They Do!
Ding, Dong, A flood of BS IPO’s will start a countdown to meltdown.
That’s not SpaceX, of Openai, it will be a load of names that appear out of the colon of Wall Street.
The last moments will been a series of incredibly strong market days while the mainstream media sings ‘hosana.’
History will rhyme hard.
Ride it up, get out too early, count your money, go on a round the world cruise…. Then thank me when you re-enter the market in the aftermath.
(Yes that is too difficult, but hold the thought when you hear the bells ringing)
We are in the bubble but I think we are in the start of the final ascent.
… lets hope I wasn’t ‘that’ right in 2024 and that it is 1998.
Here we go…. Again.