I hope my regular reader followed my precious metal suggestions a year or so ago and consistently since then. If they did conclude it was worth a position they will not only be happy but wondering what happens next.
Full disclosure. I have a big pile of PM exposure and would also like to know what next so here is my thinking.
Gold, where we are.
Right now an equilibrium price range is forming.
So I’ve put guard rails on this and the classic way to treat this is, if it break up, buy more, if it breaks down, sell. Im certainly not going to buy more if it breaks up but I’ll be comfortable with a above $5000+ move. Guard rails is a really good way to trade boom/bubbles. So lets look at Silver.
The wideness of Silvers guard rails is a warning sign that the price is toppy. This is hardly surprising when Silver is so ‘close’ to the $100 an ounce price magnet. The FOMO crowd will be see $100 as their target and this by itself will make for difficult times for anyone trying to predict short term moves.
So onwards to Platinum.
The system breaks down here, so we are whistling past the grave yard. I should think its going to break on up, but that’s what my gut tells me. Sadly I also know what my gut is connected to so take that opinion as pure guessing.
However there is comfort in Palladium.
Its wild to but a little more comfortable…. A little.
However this chart is what I cling too.
This make my Pavlovian bull slaver!
Fundamentally however its all down to Gold and whether it does a leg up to over $5000. $10000 is the FOMO magnet and if it clears $5000 and heads on up there everything will follow.
… but remember, ‘up like a rocket, down like a rock.’
That moment will come, but not while the guide rails stay in place.