Bitcoin has to go up a long way from current levels to be attractive at $100,000. Even if Bitcoin was to hit $150,000 a coin, that’s a sort of increase most people would consider achievable in picking the right stock. To get to the sort of multi-bagger profit Bitcoin would have to rise well on the way to the legendary target of $1m. As far as I’m concerned this is not going to happen.
The following projection is a sketch of why a big move up seems up likely and where I see the top at the moment.
The peak trend line gives an indication of where the top can be and its easy to use the halvening logic to suggest $120,000 is a doable limit to this cycles top. Bitcoin bulls will simply see this as the beginning of a move much higher but there is a problem. At $1m a Bitcoin the implied market cap of Bitcoin is $20 Trillion dollars or 125% of the market cap of the magnificent 7 top US stocks or nearly half of the whole SP500. Bubbles can do crazy things, with the Japanese Emperors palace theoretically being worth all of California back in the 1980s for instance. This however is not on the cards.
So now the call is, are we around the top or are we in a foothill of this crypto cycle. I’m in the camp that believes we are near the end of the run. This might seem sad but its not over for those looking for multi-bagger crypto opportunities.
Last two cycles this was exactly the time when you could double your winning and do it with a fraction of the profit from the mainstream crypto position. In the last cycle I got out at $40,000 having got in DCA-ing at the previous low at low 4 figure levels. I took my profit and took 20% of my win and played the altcoins for as much again in profit. This is the point where many will say, ‘you could have had 500% more profit if you had played it all. This is correct but a few will know that that is not the way to play and keep you winning, but instead the way to go and lose it all nine times out of ten. You only make what you get to keep and Mr Martingale is not your friend. All this aside, now is the time to trade a little to make a lot, while keeping the bulk of your profits safe.
The action is on Solana and Base and is the new AI token scene. Make no mistake this is nothing but gambling, or ‘technical trading’ if you like and in my opinion the chance of any of these tokens turning into businesses no more likely than any Pet.com dotcom darlings of yore. However they will go up like a rocket and of course down like a rock just as fast.
It’s a ‘stock pickers’ game and I wont tip any tokens as they will all be nitro-glycerine, but if you think Bitcoin will jump 20-50% up from here, this crazy stuff will go x10 that, if only for days or perhaps weeks. That is where the Crypto dream is, for a few weeks or perhaps months.
Meanwhile for those who lack the ‘Degen’ gene there are the second line old altcoins. A final run on Bitcoin will be magnified in these coins and as venerable names you can at least be assured they have been seasoned a little by time. All in all, Cryptos will move indiscriminately with Bitcoin and for those who want to play the end of days for this cycle, the beloved Crypto pop will be in the ‘assets’ below the Bitcoin crown. In the final vertical however weak or mighty, the junior tiers will be where the insane returns live.
For me, its for the birds, but for many, it’s the dream.