In recent weeks the trend of Ethereum having insane transaction fees has ended.
Transaction fees have collapsed. Where as some transactions were costing $250, now suddenly they are costing $25.
This drop is not caused by Ethereum 2 or by pushing back the Ethereum ice age, it looks like a drop in NFT traffic in a post frenzy crash, coupled with a big dip in DeFi.
Some will say there is a lot more is also going on now on so called Layer 2 blockchains like Polygon, which sit over or perhaps under, depending on your metaphor, Ethereum and drain away transactions, easing the stress on Ethereum and therefore lowering transaction costs.
To me the rise in transaction cost has always been a forecaster of Ethereum price rises, so when the opposite occurs its an omen of the opposite.
This is the Ethereum chart and you need to be a ‘real believer’ to not find that a pretty worrisome setup if you are as hodl’er.
I’d extend it like this which is not going to make anyone happy. Many will say this could never happen of course, but it certainly did in 2018. It kind of informs the Bull/Bear Bitcoin chart if you want to read through.
Everytime I do a Bitcoin Bull/Bear chart BTC has gone straight up the bull trend projection. So right now I park my bearishness at the door, but the combination of collapsed transaction fees, big competitive pressure from new smart contact platforms, the upcoming V2 roll out with all its potential for technical trouble and NFT in a post frenzy malaise all make a bull case very difficult to imagine.
Ethereum 2 is imminent and it will be make or break.